Five nuclear states declared their intent to avoid nuclear war and reiterated their commitment to disarmament in a joint statement Monday, stressing that an arms race would “benefit none and endanger all.”
The P5 joint statement, co-signed by the U.S., China, U.K., France and Russia, comes amid growing tensions in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait but does not specifically mention North Korea like some past statements, after a year in which Pyongyang resumed fuel processing at its nuclear reactor and made strides in advancing its missile technologies.
“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” the statement read. “We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.”
The five countries vowed to comply with “non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and commitments” made via the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), with a conference to review the treaty (RevCon) slated to take place sometime this year after delays due to the global pandemic.
“My sense is that it’s a generic, political statement, focusing on expressing their political will at promoting nuclear disarmament in the long term and managing strategic stability,” Gibum Kim, an associate research fellow specializing in nonproliferation at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), told NK News. “It’s especially since the U.S. and China-Russia are having trouble in Eastern Europe and the Taiwan Strait respectively.”
Jina Kim, a professor and defense analyst at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, agreed, adding that the issues of avoiding “nuclear war” or disarmament received relatively more emphasis than nonproliferation compared to the nuclear powers’ past statements.
“The severe situation today surrounding the upcoming NPT RevCon has been reflected in the statement, coming after former President Trump left the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and Chinese modernization of nuclear weapons,” she told NK News.
NORTH KOREA AND NONPROLIFERATION
North Korea has conducted several nuclear weapons tests in the past and revealed a weapons wishlist in Jan. 2020 that included nuclear capabilities. This was a stark contrast to state media reports on the 2021 year-end party plenum, which focused on domestic issues and did not explicitly mention nuclear issues.
Since withdrawing from the NPT in 2003, Pyongyang has argued that its nuclear arms buildup is for its own deterrence and defense — framing Western countries with nukes as hypocritical for criticizing its weapons development.
North Korea won’t mind the P5 statement too much, though, experts said.
“I don’t think North Korea will regard its closest ‘friends’ [China and Russia] as being hypocritical, since it’s quite a general statement,” said Gibum Kim of KIDA. “However, North Korea could say that the U.S. and the Western powers are not doing enough fulfilling their own promises [on disarmament], and may use the statement to blame them for not being responsible.”
Anthony Rinna, a Russia-DPRK specialist, noted that China and Russia view the North Korea nuclear threat differently than the U.S.
“No matter what Russia says, the DPRK likely knows Russia’s attitudes toward its possession of nuclear weapons is more relaxed than that of Washington, and as such is probably not reading into things too much,” he said.
However, Rinna said the North Korea denuclearization issue has the potential to drive a wedge between China and Russia as Beijing “increasingly views the DPRK as a strategic asset in Sino-U.S. strategic competition.”
“But as long as sanctions stay in place, they’ll likely remain in lockstep,” he said,
Edited by Bryan Betts
Five nuclear states declared their intent to avoid nuclear war and reiterated their commitment to disarmament in a joint statement Monday, stressing that an arms race would “benefit none and endanger all.”
The P5 joint statement, co-signed by the U.S., China, U.K., France and Russia, comes amid growing tensions in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait but does not specifically mention North Korea like some past statements, after a year in which Pyongyang resumed fuel processing at its nuclear reactor and made strides in advancing its missile technologies.
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