December 06, 2023

The war in Ukraine changes everything — including the future of North Korea

Russia's invasion is the latest event to increase chance Kim Jong Un regime survives and becomes more aggressive

An era has ended. The dramatic events of the last three to four years, most recently Russia’s month-old invasion of Ukraine, have demonstrated that the post-Cold War order of the last 30-odd years is gone. Much of what seemed certain has evaporated, and many old assumptions are no longer relevant — including with North Korea.

It is a good time to reconsider the DPRK’s future prospects. How will it change in the next 20 or 40 years? There are several factors to consider.