The deadline has finally arrived for all North Korean overseas laborers working in UN member states to return to their home country, as UN sanctions intended to limit funding to Pyongyang’s nuclear and weapons programs came into effect Sunday.

The requirement was agreed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) under Resolution 2397, passed on December 22, 2017.

While significant numbers of North Korean workers have been repatriated worldwide since the measure’s passing, reports have been mixed in recent weeks detailing last-minute waves of returning workers but also apparent continuity of some operations despite the deadline. 

Sunday’s official deadline comes as China and Russia last week introduced new proposals at the UNSC to lift some sanctions on North Korea, including the worker ban, though it was quickly rejected by the U.S.

THE WORKER BAN SINCE 2017

The original measure that passed in late 2017 stated under paragraph 8 that “Member States shall repatriate to the DPRK all DPRK nationals earning income in that Member State’s jurisdiction and all DPRK government safety oversight attachés monitoring DPRK workers abroad immediately but no later than 24 months from the date of adoption of this resolution.”

Justification for the measure was stated as the council’s “concern that DPRK nationals continue to work in other States for the purpose of generating foreign export earnings that the DPRK uses to support its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”

According to the text of paragraph 8, member states were required to repatriate half of the number of DPRK workers in their territories by the one-year mark, and if this mark was not met, were required to explain why in implementation reports submitted by March 2019.

Only 42 countries submitted reports specifically on the workers ban by September 2019, according to a briefing that month by the Panel of Experts (PoE) under the UNSC’s 1718 Committee on North Korea sanctions. A further five countries submitted reports on the measure by this week.

Member states have until March 22 next year to submit their final implementation reports, according to Resolution 2397, but at present over 100 states have failed to report the status of North Korean workers in their countries.

Some of the top known destinations, however — China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Mongolia — have at least officially reported compliance.

There has also been evidence in recent weeks of large numbers of DPRK workers heading back home from Russia and elsewhere, as well as reports from various outlets of the sudden closure of North Korean-run restaurants abroad. 

At the same time, it appears evasive actions may be underway in some places to continue operations, with NK News finding that some restaurants in Cambodia were putting on the appearance of being closed while still accepting guests.

Russia has also seen a major shift in its immigration statistics for DPRK citizens in recent months — with worker visas declining and tourist and student visas on the rise — raising the possibility that North Koreans are officially being given alternative visas that are not affected by the ban. This has long been a reported possibility in China as well.

China is understood to be the biggest destination for North Korean workers, but has not publicly released statistics on the number of workers in the country, despite submitting two implementation reports since the resolution’s passing. The most recent from March 2019 was listed but never uploaded to the UN sanctions committee’s website. 

The AP reported this week that estimates of the number of DPRK workers in China have reached 80,000 in the past, and that, in total, Pyongyang stands to earn hundreds of millions of dollars each year from their workers around the world.

The report also tallied the number of North Koreans said to have been sent home in the 47 implementation reports to-date: 23,245 individuals out of what the U.S. State Department has estimated is over 100,000.

CONSEQUENCES AHEAD

Member states are expected to comply with the measures out of respect for the institution of the UNSC, but there are no baked-in penalties for those who fail to meet the deadline.

Additional censures or measures on states which continue to allow employment of DPRK workers would have to be approved by the five permanent members, including Russia and China.

Some of North Korea’s traditional allies that are also heavily sanctioned, such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Syria, as well as non-UN members not subject to UN resolutions such as Abkhazia, can also choose to ignore the worker ban as they’ve previously signaled.

Their similar state of underdevelopment and distance from the DPRK, however, are considered obstacles to them becoming a viable alternative to China and Russia. 

Aside from the geopolitical effects — likely to invite squabbling from opposing sides over technical workarounds, reporting obfuscations, or failure to submit implementation reports by next March — there are also consequences for the individual workers.

Some experts argue that despite the measures being implemented officially to prevent workers’ earnings from contributing to their nuclear and ICBM programs, the worker ban also takes money out of the hands of ordinary North Koreans through remittances and thus contributes to stunting the country’s economic development.

But the workers stationed abroad are also required to send large amounts of their earnings directly back to the DPRK government in Pyongyang, and are generally not allowed freedom of movement and activity, attracting accusations of human rights violations. The positions are nonetheless highly sought-after for the relatively high pay compared to at home.

Another potential knock-on effect may relate to changes to schedules in Air China’s Beijing-Pyongyang route and DPRK national carrier Air Koryo’s routes to a handful of Chinese cities and Russia’s Far East hub in Vladivostok. 

Russian Ambassador to Pyongyang Alexander Matsegora said in an interview with a local radio station in the city last week that there may no longer be any use for the twice-weekly Vladivostok-Pyongyang route once the worker ban goes into full effect, Interfax reported.

Air Koryo is currently operating under a winter schedule that includes fewer flights to Chinese destinations due to decreased tourist demand. 

It has typically resumed more flights around April as tourist season kicks back into gear, and with Chinese tourism increasing in the last year in tandem with rising effects of 2017’s UN sanctions, flights may again be added this spring despite any possible reduction in DPRK workers in the country.

In the coming weeks and months, North Korean-run restaurants abroad, construction sites in Russia, and other known DPRK-linked operations in China and around the world will continue to be the subject of scrutiny as the deadline’s efficacy is judged.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are expected to call a vote soon on their sanctions relief package at the UNSC, which could also affect the life expectancy of the worker ban.

The U.S. has rejected the resolution, but their position on either enhancing sanctions enforcement pressure or giving in to partial relief as part of phased concessions in negotiations with North Korea may still be amended following top envoy Stephen Biegun’s trip to the region last week. 

Featured image: NK News