Editor’s note: What If? is an NK News series featuring scenarios about North Korea’s future. Articles in this series draw on verified facts and rigorous analysis to explore hypothetical events in the years and decades ahead.

It’s March 2024 and a routine U.N. meeting in New York City is scheduled to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) on North Korea, the body charged with monitoring the implementation of the U.N. sanctions regime.

The annual renewal had been uncontroversial during the Panel’s first decade, yet over the last two years, growing tensions pitting China and Russia against the