Signs of increased preparations for a military parade have appeared in Pyongyang in recent weeks, according to informed sources on the ground and satellite imagery, indicating North Korea is planning to hold a parade for one or multiple upcoming holidays.

One source in Pyongyang told NK News that they heard jet aircraft flying over the DPRK capital in the evening last week. A Russian media outlet also reported on jet flyovers heard on the night of Jan. 27. 

Since North Korea’s first-ever night-time military parade in Oct. 2020, air force formation training flights have taken place after dusk in the days or weeks ahead of three different parade events, suggesting last week’s jet activity was linked to parade preparations. 

Military parade marching practices have also appeared to increase at a Pyongyang training base since late January, according to Planet Labs satellite imagery — activity which has historically occurred on the same scale in the weeks or months ahead of an official parade downtown.

However, some preparations, such as amassing military vehicles in grass parking lots at the Mirim military parade training complex in the capital, have yet to appear in satellite imagery.

The shortest time before a parade that dozens of trucks — used to move troops during the event — appeared at the site was 10 days, coming ahead of the Sep. 9, 2021 small-scale “paramilitary” parade that featured tens of thousands of troops marching but no heavy weaponry. 

This suggests a large-scale military parade is not planned for the Feb. 16 national holiday celebrating former leader Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday — now seven days away.

Excluding last September’s parade, trucks appeared anywhere from three to 11 weeks ahead of parade dates in recent years, according to Planet Labs available imagery covering five other parades held since 2017. 

North Korea could have sped up their training timeline after gaining experience through holding three parades in a short span since late 2020, meaning it is still possible for trucks to appear at the Mirim complex in the coming days ahead of a small or large parade on Feb. 16.

But if past precedent holds, the more likely date for a major parade featuring intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and possibly new weapons systems would be in April.

North Korea is expected to celebrate three dates that month, with the 110th birthday of founding leader Kim Il Sung on April 15 the most likely for a major military parade. 

Other key dates that could bring major celebrations include the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Un becoming first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) on April 11 and the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army on April 25. 

Large-scale parades featuring the country’s latest heavy weaponry took place in Pyongyang’s central square on Kim Il Sung’s 100th birthday in 2012 and his 105th birthday in 2017.

Smaller-scale military parades took place on Kim Jong Il’s 70th birthday in 2012 — coming less than two months after he died and Kim Jong Un took power — and on his 75th in 2017. Both were held outside the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun where the former leaders lie in state, but the 2017 event appeared scaled down, with no heavy weapons on display and Kim Jong Un not in attendance.

North Korean state media has indicated that both the upcoming Feb. 16 and April 15 birthdays of the former leaders will be celebrated on a grand scale, and a second informed source in Pyongyang told NK News on condition of anonymity that they understand a big event is planned for Feb. 16.

The holiday will coincide with the ongoing Beijing Winter Olympics, meaning a military parade, missile test or other show of military strength could anger China, experts said.

Meanwhile, the country has also announced special stamps for the April 11 and 25 anniversaries, suggesting that it will hold some kind of celebrations for for each occasion. 

Edited by Arius Derr