NK News (file) | Elderly residents of Pyongyang play cards in the park, Oct. 2016
North Korea is such an intractable foreign policy problem and the stakes surrounding it have such stark implications that the mind often wanders to deviations from the norm, and perhaps assumes that the norm is so precarious that it cannot persist much longer.
The 10-year anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death is a good time to reflect on this phenomenon. Among engagement skeptics who see North Korea as a threat to contain, there was an assumption that Kim Jong Un could not possibly keep the regime afloat — he was too young, too inexperienced and surrounded by elites pursuing their own interests. Given the headwinds the regime faced, a miscalculation appeared inevitable.
North Korea is such an intractable foreign policy problem and the stakes surrounding it have such stark implications that the mind often wanders to deviations from the norm, and perhaps assumes that the norm is so precarious that it cannot persist much longer.
The 10-year anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death is a good time to reflect on this phenomenon. Among engagement skeptics who see North Korea as a threat to contain, there was an assumption that Kim Jong Un could not possibly keep the regime afloat — he was too young, too inexperienced and surrounded by elites pursuing their own interests. Given the headwinds the regime faced, a miscalculation appeared inevitable.
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Rob York is director for regional affairs at the Pacific Forum. He previously worked as a production editor for The South China Morning Post and chief editor of NK News. He is also a Ph.D. candidate in Korean history at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.