Tourism to North Korea ballooned in 2019 to unprecedented levels, with NK News estimating a record 350,000 Chinese visited in a trend providing huge revenues to Pyongyang at a time of significant global sanctions pressure.

But fast-forward to 2020 and, because of the ongoing and sustained implications of COVID-19, the outlook for the DPRK travel industry could not be worse.

With all tours to North Korea suspended since January 21, initial assessments that North Korea’s COVID-19 travel restrictions might be lifted according to a similar timeline to during the Ebola crisis of 2014/2015 now seem very unlikely.

So, what are the implications for both the foreign companies and North Korean partners whose livelihoods depend on the DPRK tourism business? What will it actually take to convince Pyongyang of it being safe enough to re-open the border? And when might the border reopen?

To understand all this and more, NK News reached out to a number of travel operators offering North Korea itineraries and regular visitors to hear in detail about the challenges posed by COVID-19.

The following travel specialists and regular visitors responded in time for our deadline:

• Andray Abrahamian – Founder, Coreana Connect
• Carl Meadows – Senior Travel Specialist, Regent Holidays
• Rayco Vega – Tours Coordinator, KTG Tours
• Rowan Beard – DPRK Tours Manager, Young Pioneer Tours
• Simon Cockerell – General Manager, Koryo Tours

What are the biggest short-term impacts you can think of that are likely to result from an extended industry shut-down (both outside the country, and inside?)

Rowan Beard: The immediate impact we faced here at Young Pioneer Tours (YPT) from the DPRK borders and other international destinations closing was having to lay off staff members and reduce salaries.

When the Ebola ban happened back in 2014/15, our travel partners in North Korea focused their efforts on domestic tourism to keep staff members busy and to allow business to continue. It was incredibly busy for them but it helped.

However, with COVID-19 all tourism within the country has been shut down which would be having a greater effect on hotels, restaurants, and other tourist venues.

Simon Cockerell: Outside, for travel companies, it is devastating.

Nobody makes any profit in winter and we usually get to a breakeven point with the first high season of the year which is in April, when the Pyongyang Marathon takes place, the weather gets better, and there are festivals such as the Day of the Sun.

This time this has all been canceled, full refunds sent out to hundreds of people, zero income for months.

It is a dire situation that is a great pity for not just us but also for the people who were planning to travel (Pyongyang Marathon would have been April 12th after all, very soon indeed) – and of course the people we work with inside the country.

It is easy for people to assume that there are not so many ill-effects on our partners in the DPRK as they have job security from the state and so on, but they still need money to get by, their money comes from tourism, and there is no tourism.

So for individuals working in tourism they too must be worrying about when they can get back to work and earning a crust, their bosses have hundreds of people on their payroll that they need to take care of and there is no income to them either.

I can imagine they are deeply frustrated and worried about this. And to cap it all they haven’t even got Tiger King to keep them amused/bemused for some of the time! Seriously though it is the most difficult of situations and I hope that everyone makes it through.

I would hope that the powers that be in the DPRK might consider what they could do to become more attractive to tourists after this is all over; maybe some relaxing of the restrictions on where people can travel, working on new routes and possibilities, spending the time looking at their processes and training to see what could be adapted and improved.

Still, most importantly they need to stay as healthy as possible like everyone else, so if it takes more pain to avoid the greater pain of being subjected to the pointy end of the pandemic spear then this is what has to happen.

Rayco Vega: For us, it means a loss of revenue with all tours canceled.

For our Korean partners, it will be the same. They will probably focus more on training guides, workshops, etc as they tend to do in the low season and perhaps even start researching on new tourist destinations in North Korea to promote in the future.

Andray Abrahamian: I think it depends on if Chinese tourists begin traveling again.

They’re the volume visitors to the DPRK and may provide revenue somewhere below $100,000,000.

That’s significant in North Korea and the number of stakeholders in the tourism industry is increasingly diverse, so there will be a wide range of actors looking to get things going again.

Carl Meadows: Outside of the DPRK and, effectively worldwide, the pause-button has been hit on almost all domestic and international tourism.

The economic impact is mind-boggling and we expect a significant number of airlines and businesses to fail across the globe over the coming weeks and months. Of course for Air Koryo and North Korea’s tourism businesses, where all is ostensibly state-controlled, the possibility of such businesses going under is near zero – so the prime impact here will be in the massive reductions of hard currency these organizations bring into the country.

But the cost to many persons in North Korea will be significant – as significant numbers of people are employed, both directly and indirectly, by the tourism industry, and a hefty portion of their income comes in from the tourists who occupy the hotels, dine in the restaurants and shop in the bookshops/galleries and such.

These persons will already be feeling the pinch, and with the typically busy spring season just around the corner, will likely be beginning to panic over the massive cut which will be coming to their income.

How about the biggest long-term impacts you can think of?

Carl Meadows: The travel ban to the DPRK of late 2014/early 2015 (due to concerns over Ebola) did make our already difficult job of promoting the country as a tourism destination even harder than it already was, as some people are always going to be reluctant to book a holiday to a country that can, without notice, pull up the drawbridge and seal itself off from the outside.

But the COVID-19 pandemic is unique for our generation, as it is a global epidemic that has resulted in almost every nation on Earth doing exactly what North Korea did 5 years ago – pull down the shutters, batten down the hatches and, effectively, wait it out.

What the long term impact of this will be for North Korea is very hard to call – certainly, some tour operators promoting the country may not be here in 12 months’ time, but for North Korea there is a possibility and hope that they may decide to look at alternative styles of tourism — for example, moving away from large budget groups and focusing on smaller numbers of higher-value tourists.

For some years the authorities seem to have been, publicly at least, more interested in the sheer number of tourists visiting the country than the actual revenue they may bring in. The panic over COVID-19 may redress this – 10 high-spending tourists on a 10-day tour of the country may indeed be better for all concerned than a group of 50 on a 2-day trip.

Another acute concern is that our clients are increasingly reluctant to travel to the DPRK via China, which is of course the main gateway country for accessing the DPRK.

We anticipate, in the wake of COVID-19, that this reluctance may grow – making promoting the DPRK even harder while North Korea’s limited access/entry points are so heavily pinned on China.

Rayco Vega: Maybe a loss of interest from partner agencies in Europe working with us, especially new partners who were to send their first groups this year. But I think that this will depend on how long travel restrictions around the world will be and how they compare to travel restrictions set by DPRK.

When our Korean partners announced back in January that the borders were closed, well before other countries started imposing travel restrictions, it created a lot of disappointment with new travel agencies from Europe arranging tours with us to Korea.

They did not understand why the country would close off and cancel tours for Europeans without there having been any cases in Europe and I think that at that time this may have put them off from promoting tours to DPRK in the future. Some new partners told us that it would indeed be hard to get groups for the future.

However, now there are travel restrictions all over the world, including China, so the measures taken by North Korea do not seem that extreme. Had the world continued as normal and had there not been cases outside of China but the DPRK closed off, I think that this would have definitely made many new European agencies not count on arranging tours to North Korea in the future as was the case with when the country closed off because of the Ebola (so our Korean partners told us).

If the DPRK keeps closed for many months after the rest of the world is back to normal, this may put these partners off from promoting tours to DPRK.

As for travelers who have booked directly with us most have confirmed they will join once the border re-open so this should not be a long term issue.

Overall for the industry, a long-term impact could possibly be a higher number of travelers once the borders re-open.

2016, the season after the borders were re-opened because of Ebola, was one of our busiest years. If this is the case and if demand to go to DPRK accumulates, especially amongst Chinese travelers, there will be a shortage of train and plane tickets once the borders re-open as has been the case recently with an increase of Chinese groups going. This will also affect agencies like us arranging tours for non-Chinese groups.

Simon Cockerell: For companies such as mine the long term issue is maintaining viability; if this closure goes on more than a year, if the virus becomes endemic and annual, if there is a general perception that the border could close at any time, these are all factors that would disincentivize people from traveling with us to North Korea.

Also as almost all visitors would have to pass through China, even for a short time, the perception of how welcoming and safe China is as a place to visit is also important. If people are put-off from passing through China then going to North Korea is basically off the table. So there is a range of ongoing issues to deal with.

If the border opens and we wish for the market to recover and grow then that would involve both China and the DPRK becoming more open in terms of limitations on travel (in the case of North Korea) and becoming simpler and less painful in terms of visa process (China), among other things.

Of course, we work, and have worked, for decades in a field which is complex, full of limitations and rules, and subject to powers beyond our reach, so we are used to adapting to outside context problems — but this one has the potential to be the one that lingers on for a long time. There is simply nothing about it that is good or beneficial in any way!

Andray Abrahamian: Other than the revenue stream, tourism is one point in which North Korean and international society intersect.

It’s limited, of course, but is an important source of information in both directions.

The longer it is absent, the less we know about what’s going on in North Korea and the less Pyongyang middle classes know about the outside world.

Rowan Beard: I’m concerned that once the DPRK decides to reopen their borders, China and/or Russia may not be so open to allow tourists traveling from North Korea back in due to complications with their health system.

What is your firm doing in the short-term to get over this tough spot?

Simon Cockerell: Basically hunkering down; with no market for tourism and no tourists this also means no income, but there are still outgoings.

So we have to cut back where we can, go to reduced hours, find ways to make savings. It is a very difficult time and quite different from the shutdowns during SARS (when we were a much smaller company in a much smaller market), and Ebola (we all knew that when that ban ended things could get back close to business as usual very quickly).

This time it is affecting the whole world and the end is by no means in sight, so it is hard to know how long to anticipate being basically shut down for.

In addition to the financial pressures that this causes there are of course other problems such as some staff being unable to return to China due to the ban on foreigners entering the country, staff not being able to visit relatives or plan any travel themselves, and uncertainty over income.

Plus the psychological pressure from worries about the future of the company, having work to do that is productive and so on.

This is hardly unique to us though and I believe that everyone who works here is able to see the big picture and count their blessings that things could in fact be worse.

Rayco Vega: Right now our offices are pretty much closed.

People only go if they have any urgent matters to solve.

We are reducing costs as much as possible, not spending on adverts, not recruiting, etc. Our agency is only allowed to arrange tours within the province where we are located (Liaoning) but there are no groups.

Carl Meadows: Once the realities of the situation began to hit, as the pandemic and associated/effective ‘travel bans’ spread from East Asia all the way to our own doorstep here in Western Europe, we took the decision to cancel/postpone travel for all of our clients scheduled to commence their travels up until the end of May, and to stop taking any new bookings for persons looking to travel before the middle of July.

Our focus now has been to promote travel for the 2nd half of the year and, while business is understandably far quieter than normal, to work on our tours, product, marketing and such for 2021 and beyond – so that we are fully prepared for when the black cloud hanging over us inevitably starts to clear.

Rowan Beard: We are now offering a paid membership program that we’ll be announcing this week. It will allow customers to sign up and have access to big discounts for any future tour with us.

We are also accepting 50 euro flexible deposits which can be used to secure spots for tours once travel restrictions are lifted across the globe.

In terms of communication with your North Korean partners, is there any sense yet on when the border could be re-opened? Or any educated best guesses? If so, when might that be?

Rayco Vega: Nobody knows nor can they tell us when they will be able to know. But the overall feeling we get is that it will be much longer than what they or anybody had initially expected.

In the beginning the sense was that it would just last a few months. They had told us that the Mass Games were to take place on 10 October and that the borders would most likely be opened by then.

Now, as the situation around the world is much worse, they cannot even confirm that the borders will open in 2020 or early 2021.

Our personal guess is that they will not open until after the next winter, around March 2021. They may want to see if cases of COVID-19 increase next winter.

We asked them if the borders were likely to be closed until next year and they said that “It’s really difficult to estimate as the situation in Europe and America is getting really bad.”

Their not ruling this out tells us that it is possible.

Rowan Beard: I’ve heard mixed comments from the DPRK embassy and North Koreans within the travel industry.

Some have suggested the border will reopen during summer in time for the 75th anniversary celebrations for Liberation Day and Party Foundation Day. Others have said there won’t be another tour for 2020.

There have been no official comments since the DPRK announced they won’t reopen until there is a vaccine.

Simon Cockerell: Our partners are travel companies, they don’t make the decisions on when the border may open and they themselves are just one rung on the ladder waiting for information from somewhere an unclear amount of rungs further up!

So while we can ask them for guesses and estimations or a sense of what they feel, this has limited value.

As there are major national holidays in the country in August and October some say that they must open for those, but if there is still a risk of virus spread then that would of course be a mistake.

Personally I would hope that it is sometime this year and before the end of the tourism season. So not in winter basically.

Carl Meadows: We still have bookings for June that our partners in Pyongyang have agreed to keep ‘live’ for now, in the hope they will be realized. But as time goes by the likelihood of these materializing fades.

For now the prime message we are receiving from Pyongyang is to focus on the 15th August – 15th October window, as every indication is that these two dates will be marked by major celebrations and that, somehow, all will be back to normal by this date.

The Mass Games is of course also expected to take place within this window.

Andray Abrahamian: Coreana Connect was hoping to begin in-country programming this year, focusing on menstrual health and workplace safety and comfort.

There are a number of challenges at the best of times. This pushes any timelines we might have imagined further back.

Realistically, what do you think it would take for authorities in the DPRK/PRC to re-open the border? What conditions would be required?

Andray Abrahamian: China essentially has a near-complete travel ban on right now, so in a sense it is out of Pyongyang’s hands at this point. Maybe if globally R approaches 1, governments generally will ease up on travel restrictions.

(Overall), this is a perfect example of a phenomenon I often ponder: China has so much information on the DPRK and communicates more substantially with policymakers in Pyongyang than the rest of the world put together.

If these travel restrictions do create economic pressures that could lead to instability, they will take steps to fix things, possibly before the rest of us even hear about them.

That doesn’t mean supply chains won’t be disrupted and revenues won’t be declining in North Korea. In a sense then, the DPRK will continue to survive in the same ways it has been in the face of a robust sanctions regime.

Carl Meadows: By closing their borders the DPRK, it could be argued, has painted itself into a corner, much the same as many, many countries have done.

Yes – such actions may reduce the chance of COVID-19 spreading, but the economic impact is staggering. Accordingly, the authorities may find the financial burden to hard to bear, and slowly relax the restrictions – for example to those who are coming from countries/areas deemed as being ‘low risk’, or to those arriving by Air Koryo (thus helping fund the state coffers).

News of a potential vaccination or test to see if an individual is infectious/immune hasn’t bypassed our friends in Pyongyang – we have already mooted the question of whether non-infections/immune/vaccinated persons may be able to visit the DPRK once the possibility of proving such becomes a reality.

Of course such things are of interest to a great many people, both in and outside the DPRK.

Rowan Beard: Health certificates. When the border first opens it may be for locals and businessmen only.

Once safety is confirmed, tourists will then be allowed.

China has introduced health apps that track where you’ve been for the previous two weeks or more. North Korea will certainly be strict on this as well.

Simon Cockerell: I believe the DPRK government has said they would open when there is a cure. Presumably there being zero cases would be good enough for them.

The reality though is that this border would need to be open from two sides. And both of the countries there have issued numbers of cases which have attracted great skepticism from commenters.

I would imagine that both the DPRK and China would need to have mutual trust that there is no risk of infection coming from one to the other first of all.

Obviously North Korea needs the income from trade and visitors more than China needs whatever it gets coming the other way. But at the same time the DPRK has made a public virtue out of getting by without outside assistance and interference for many many years. So if anyone is able to hunker down then it is probably them, but that would never work for 100% of the population and there will always be a lot of people greatly hurt by ongoing limitations on trade, cooperation and interaction, and of course the humanitarian field too.

Rayco Vega: Our guess is that for the DPRK to open to European tourists there must be no more cases of COVID-19 around the world, or that it is very, very clear that the virus is no longer a threat.

For many months following MERS and years following the borders being closed because of Ebola, we had to write in all name lists sent to Pyongyang that travelers had not been in countries affected by these.

The DPRK is very sensitive when it comes to pandemics, which is why we think that they will only re-open once they are certain that this won’t harm them. And this is why we think that even if all cases disappear they will wait for a time to make sure there are no new outbursts.

Edited by James Fretwell