April 21, 2024
Analysis

Into the future: Where North Korea might be by the year 2040

Trends suggest the DPRK will have a sophisticated and reliable nuclear deterrent by 2040. What will be the consequences?

During a panel I spoke on with a U.S. ambassador some years back, he talked a lot about how Washington might deal with a North Korea conflict, collapse, or internal regime change. But when a student asked about strategy if the current system lasts another hundred years, he had real trouble providing a coherent answer.

The truth is that while North Korea discourse has long focused on crisis management, few ever talk about what happens if things continue decades into the future.

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