May 17, 2022

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The folly of an inter-Korean confederation

North and South Korea will never reach an agreement on the confederation they claim to want, because it wouldn't work

Talking about the future is a risky business. The vast majority of prophets have been wrong, but this has not prevented people from predicting what is likely to happen if current trends continue. Perhaps such activities, despite being risky for individual reputations (we all love to make fun of a failed prophecy) are indeed necessary for any type of planning.

With all those provisos, let’s turn to the question of what is likely to happen on the Korean Peninsula in the next couple of decades. The official answer given by the South Korean elite and its public is well-known: Every good Korean is expected to believe that at some point in the future, North and South Korea will become one state.