North Korea’s dispatch of troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine represents Kim Jong Un’s riskiest decision since he rose to power 13 years ago.

The deployment inserts the DPRK into a dangerous and unpredictable situation, sharply increasing the risk of black-swan events that could have major consequences for both Kim and his nation. 

Kim’s decision comes amid ongoing inter-Korean tensionsand greatly raises the chances of unexpected escalation, especially if Ukraine takes gray zone actions in or around North Korea. While Putin and Trump could play a major role in moderating the situation in the months ahead,