by Stephen J. Ellis

It is currently unclear whether North Korea will decide to match any of its recent bellicose rhetoric with a military action against South Korea. However, if the leadership in Pyongyang does decide to escalate the current crisis into a military confrontation, then Seoul must be prepared to respond with a robust show of military force. If Seoul fails to respond forcefully to any military action by North Korea, then this is only likely to lead to further destabilizing behavior by Pyongyang, potentially in this crisis and certainly in the future.

After all, as recently as 2010, Pyongyang engaged in