North Korean men harvesting corn, Sept. 10, 2015 | Image: NK News
North Korea produced 180,000 tons less food this year than in 2021, exacerbating chronic food shortages, South Korea’s Rural Development Administration (RDA) said Thursday.
According to a government report, the decline from around 4.7 million to 4.5 million tons of food comes after floods, drought and other weather conditions stunted the growth of all crops except wheat and barley. Tuber yields suffered the most in relative terms, declining 14% on-year.
South Korea’s estimate is based on a “comprehensive analysis of crop harvesting data” and satellite imagery, according to the RDA, and roughly aligns with an earlier forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
An NK Pro analysis of specialized satellite imagery similarly found little evidence that Pyongyang’s fixation on improving crop yields has had measurable success, even as the amount of farmland dedicated to rice cultivation has increased slightly.
The RDA report also attributes this year’s shortfall to market forces driving up the cost of agricultural inputs, such as Russian export controls on nitrogen-based fertilizers enacted in response to international sanctions against Moscow.
According to Leo van der Velden, who served as deputy director of the World Food Program (WFP) in the DPRK from 2012-2013, these analyses are reliable when compared to previous years, but don’t provide a full picture of the situation on the ground.
“There are many more factors than just the amount of crops produced … For example, food must be transported from areas where there is a surplus to areas where there is a shortage,” he explained, suggesting that the inability to do so can exacerbate food insecurity in some parts of the country.
And while satellite and harvesting data give us a rough idea of the food situation in the DPRK, the absence of foreign observers means we do not know the full extent of the situation on the ground, according to Van Der Velden.
“We would use a combination of North Korean government data with aerial surveys and triangulate that information with field visits to the countryside and simply visiting family households,” he said. “Because there are no foreign aid workers left, international organizations cannot conduct such granular research.”
North Korea’s extreme COVID-19 restrictions sparked an exodus of foreign aid workers, with the last international aid personnel leaving the DPRK in March 2021.
Another problem is that macro-level data does not provide any information about the quality of food, Van der Velden explained. “In North Korea, WFP intervention has traditionally focused on quality of food, addressing the lack of micronutrients for children and lactating women, rather than on the quantity of food.”
Earlier this year, a U.N. report stated that more than 10.7 million North Koreans, (41% of the population) were undernourished between 2019-2021, making the DPRK the fourth most malnourished country in the world.
North Korea produced 180,000 tons less food this year than in 2021, exacerbating chronic food shortages, South Korea’s Rural Development Administration (RDA) said Thursday.
According to a government report, the decline from around 4.7 million to 4.5 million tons of food comes after floods, drought and other weather conditions stunted the growth of all crops except wheat and barley. Tuber yields suffered the most in relative terms, declining 14% on-year.
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Ethan Jewell is a Seoul-based correspondent for NK News focused on sanctions, trade and maritime issues. He previously worked as an investigations and intelligence specialist for Pinkerton Comprehensive Risk Management and as a research intern for the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies.
Ifang Bremer is a Seoul Correspondent at NK News. He has worked on investigations for The Guardian and The Observer and previously wrote features on Korea for Dutch newspaper NRC.