North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has not made a new appearance in state media in 31 days, according to the NK Pro Leadership Tracker, his third-longest absence since taking power in late 2011.

It comes as Pyongyang launched an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, though state media has yet to report on the country’s military activities since the first week of November.

Kim could soon reappear in state media if he chooses to disclose information about the ICBM test, while satellite imagery suggests preparations are underway for a major event or conference in Pyongyang that he could attend in the coming days.

LATEST ABSENCE 

Kim’s extended absences in the past have sometimes coincided with obvious health issues, but it is also likely he has been vacationing at his luxurious mansion compounds around the country, overseeing military activities or both during these periods. 

Despite no mention of Kim’s presence in a state media report on a series of at least 33 missile launches from Nov. 2 to 5, it is possible he guided and attended at least some of those military activities.

State media has been caught trying to hide his presence at such events in the past, possibly to downplay their impact on domestic audiences or to spotlight the military’s independent command and control capabilities.

A missile expo in Oct. 2021 also revealed several previously unreleased photos of Kim inspecting missiles, suggesting he has been keeping up tours of key military factories in secret. 

During his previous extended absence of 29 days from September to October, state media belatedly revealed that he had been guiding missile tests and military drills during that time, so it is still possible that he appears in a comprehensive report in the coming days or weeks on recent missile tests conducted on Nov. 9, 17 and 18. 

The North Korean leader has generally made fewer public appearances at the end of the calendar year in recent years, suggesting he may be preparing behind the scenes for an event such as another major party plenum in late December to wrap up 2022 and reveal major political, military and economic plans for 2023. Last year, state media announced the plenum plans at the start of December.

Kim’s longest-ever period out of the public eye was 40 days in 2014, when he reportedly suffered health issues and returned to normal appearances using a walking cane. He also appeared to have lost a significant amount of weight after returning from a 28-day absence last year, sparking rumors of more health issues. 

His second-longest absence was a 35-day break around one year ago, which did not appear to coincide with any health problems. 

Kim’s most recent public appearance was at the Central Cadres Training School in Pyongyang on Oct. 17, reported in state media the following day. 

BIG EVENT PREPARATION IN PYONGYANG

NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery shows dozens of buses filling the parking lot of the April 25 Hotel in Pyongyang, a key accommodation used for most major conferences and events and located at the country’s main military parade training compound.

The number of vehicles and buses indicates attendees have arrived from around the country for an event at one of Pyongyang’s largest venues, such as the April 25 House of Culture or Pyongyang Indoor Stadium. Imagery shows higher-than-usual vehicle activity at both venues in the last week.

It is unclear what the event will be, as state media has not announced any major party meetings or conferences for this month.

The April 25 Hotel appeared busy on Nov. 17, while there was little activity there in days and weeks prior | Images: Planet Labs PBH, edited by NK Pro

It could be another conference or workshop for party officials, as Kim has emphasized the importance of ideological purity and correcting the thoughts and behavior of party members and officials in recent speeches. 

The event could also be the 9th Conference of the Munitions Industry, giving Kim the chance to boost recent military accomplishments and weapons development plans. The 8th conference was held just under five years ago, in Dec. 2017, and the ruling party has committed to holding such meetings for party organizations and industries every five years. 

The preparations and apparent arrival of guests appear slightly too early for an event celebrating the five-year anniversary of the first Hwasong-15 ICBM launch on Nov. 29, 2017, but it may still be related given the latest ICBM launch on Friday. 

DPRK authorities put on big events and ordered mandatory celebrations around the country for weeks after the 2017 launch and even created a new holiday last year called Rocket Industry Day to mark the anniversary, though it is unclear if celebrations actually took place and it has not appeared on official calendars this year. 

Edited by Bryan Betts