As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, it’s almost hard to remember that for months before the invasion, many thought it would never happen. 

Experts and analysts cited the huge financial costs that would be unbearable for the Kremlin. Others believed Putin was merely saber-rattling in order to get the best deal out of NATO negotiations. One researcher wrote that a full-scale war was out of character for Russia’s grand strategy and “does not really fit into how the Kremlin has used hard power in its geopolitical games.”