North Korea is set to end 2021 with a bang, as the country prepares to host a party plenum in the coming days that could produce major foreign policy announcements and mark a key anniversary for Kim Jong Un’s first decade in power.

Kim has used speeches around the new year holiday in the past to make friendly overtures to the U.S. and South Korea, but also to reveal nuclear weapon developments and other military plans.

Pyongyang is preparing to ring in the new year with a large outdoor concert on Friday night as well, despite COVID-19 fears, according to new satellite imagery showing a stage set up in Kim Il Sung Square, while a new street of skyscrapers may soon open with a big ceremony.

State media has not announced a detailed schedule for the next week, but past patterns reveal clues about what to expect from North Korea as 2022 approaches.

PARTY PLENUM

North Korea announced earlier this month that the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee would hold a plenary meeting, or plenum, sometime in late December. Barring any delays, it should take place this week.

The most likely scenario is that it lasts multiple days and ends on Dec. 31, with major policy announcements released via state media on Jan. 1. Past precedent also suggests the Central Military Commission (CMC) could meet just before or after the plenum.

Three of the last five party plenums have lasted four days, and two have lasted just one day. The closest parallel to this week’s planned plenum is one that took place in 2019 from Dec. 28 to 31. 

State media offered brief reports a day late on each of the first three days of the 2019 plenum, but released a detailed report on Jan. 1, 2020 covering Kim Jong Un’s closing speech.

This speech replaced his annual “New Year Address,” and included significant messages regarding how he planned to deal with the U.S. and South Korea, as well as domestic economic problems, in the coming year. 

Kim previously used his 2018 New Year Address to announce the bombshell that he wanted to send a top-level delegation to the upcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea, and his 2019 address to announce he wanted to meet U.S. President Donald Trump again to work out their differences.

It appears that Kim has moved to institutionalize major policy announcements for the new year instead of delivering them in his personal capacity — first with the Dec. 2019 plenum speech and then with a similarly long and detailed speech at the party congress in Jan. 2021 — and will likely aim to do the same again with the plenum this week.

For its part, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification (MOU) on Monday stressed the importance of the plenum’s timing. Spokesperson Lee Jong-joo urged North Korea to use the opportunity to announce a “return to dialogue and cooperation as their first step of the new year.”

KIM’S 10-YEAR ANNIVERSARY

This Thursday, Dec. 30 is the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Un officially becoming “Supreme Commander” of the country’s armed forces, receiving the title on that day in 2011 less than two weeks after the unexpected death of his father and former leader Kim Jong Il.

This used to be cause for major celebrations such as large-scale “National Meetings” with speeches praising Kim and choreographed dance performances in Kim’s name, according to state media. 

However, no such events appeared to take place in 2020 as state media only released brief reports on foreign supporters sending congratulations on the ninth anniversary.

Peculiar changes regarding Kim’s “Supreme Commander” title emerged in early 2020 as state TV began to erase the emblem of a star with diamonds and rubies that represented the title, followed by authorities taking down the emblem from prominent propaganda displays in Pyongyang.

It would not be surprising for there to be some kind of celebratory event later this week since North Korea’s propagandists have long favored holding celebrations on five and 10-year anniversaries, and as state media has been promoting the one decade mark for months. But the above examples suggest the “Supreme Commander” title anniversary may be mostly ignored or overshadowed by the plenum this week.

NEW YEAR’S EVE CONCERT

While top officials will be busy preparing for the plenum, others in Pyongyang appear to have already started setting up the main central square for the country’s fourth annual New Year’s Eve outdoor concert.

According to NK News analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery, organizers began to build a stage on the west side of Kim Il Sung Square between Dec. 22 and 23, roughly matching the location used in 2018 and 2019. 

The previous concerts were broadcast live or with a slight delay on Korean Central Television (KCTV) before and after midnight, and included fireworks, drone shows, laser light displays and propaganda tunes about Kim Jong Un and the ruling party performed by top artists in the country.

The concert likely set for this coming Friday night comes as North Korean meteorologists are predicting a low of around 12 F (-11 C) in Pyongyang, and as state media continues to emphasize the importance of social distancing and mask-wearing to prevent the spread of COVID-19. 

Last year’s show appeared to be cut short and toned down amid a more solemn mood related to economic hardships caused by the pandemic. 

BIG CONSTRUCTION CEREMONIES IN PYONGYANG

Lastly, major events may take place this week in Pyongyang to open a new street of skyscrapers — including one reaching 80 stories — and a smaller neighborhood of new homes for elites. 

Both projects are due for completion by the end of the year, according to Kim Jong Un’s public instructions, and both have shown signs of construction wrapping up in recent weeks.

If the projects overcame economic problems and materials shortages that have led to indefinite delays of other marquee construction projects in recent years, they could be opened with large-scale ceremonies attended by Kim Jong Un, similar to the last two skyscraper street projects in the capital — 2015’s Mirae Scientists Street and 2017’s Ryomyong Street. 

The ceremonies could take place this week ahead of or during coverage of the plenum, or be pushed back until after the plenum ends. Since the skyscraper street only comprises one-fifth of a five-year project to build 50,000 homes in Pyongyang, authorities may also choose to treat a moving-in ceremony for that project with less fanfare than the Mirae or Ryomyong street projects.

Edited by Arius Derr