Views expressed in Opinion articles are exclusively the authors’ own and do not represent those of NK News.

So what just happened? Kim Jong Un is dead, buried, oh wait, no, he’s just fine!

The media is at fault, some say. They don’t speak Korean or they spread scurrilous fake news even if they do.

Either way, critics of recent media coverage of Kim’s disappearance argue we should have just said nothing, and waited for the twenty days that Kim Jong Un was absent. Move along, nothing to see here.

There was no particularly important reason, clearly, why he missed his own grandfather’s birthday commemorations — something that the Sejong Institute’s Cheong Seong-chang, a world-renowned expert, said was “the closest thing to blasphemy in the North.”

We might criticize the rookie mistakes of new refugee politicos, one of whom recklessly claimed that he knew Kim had already kicked the bucket.

Some in the media were certainly too trigger happy, too quick to pronounce Kim dead in absentia.

But the speculation machine wasn’t just driven by a lack of linguistic abilities, or ideological fervor; there was plenty of rational, and considered interest from Korean and non-Korean speakers. Kim’s health is a big deal, and we shouldn’t just pretend it’s not a problem — despite what the South Korean government may insist.

THE SOURCE

Let’s look at the original source of the rumors. Daily NK (DNK) is a media organization set up in 2004 by former pro-North Korean activists who realized their mistake after seeing the famine of the 1990s. They use methods that are common to all media companies who try to report from inside the country: they often have to rely on single sources and report on rumors that are circulating.

They do their best to avoid single-source claims utilizing a network of multiple informants in the country and cross-reference with other media reports and South Korean academic work. 

While some have cast doubt on DNK’s sources generally, others have said that it’s only reliable as a source for information in the regions far away from Pyongyang. But institutions matter: Party officials far from Pyongyang are likely to know far more about what is happening inside the state than factory workers in the capital’s industrial district. 

What’s more, these people clearly have not read DNK’s market data over the past 10+ years.

We now have corroboration of them as a reliable source on the market situation in Pyongyang. Data by NK News‘s sister site NK Pro on North Korean market exchange rates confirms Daily NK reporting on Pyongyang exchange rates.

And analysis by this site also confirmed with photographic evidence a story first published by Daily NK about the Ministry of State Security covering windows on high-floor apartments near sensitive political locations in Pyongyang. This gives credence to Daily NK claims of having sources in the capital.

LOST IN TRANSLATION?

We do not know how DNK’s source got the information they published on Kim Jong Un’s health. The website reported in Korean that he had a procedure (not surgery, less invasive; ‘시술’ in Korean) in layman’s terms on his heart’s blood vessels (a ‘cardiovascular procedure’).

This terminology can include the insertion of a coronary stent, and one can usually be back on one’s feet after a couple of days recovery from such an operation, at least this is what I have heard from South Korean clinicians and from a friend of mine who actually had such an operation.

This means that Daily NK’s report may well have been right, even though Kim has since reemerged in public. They may have received this information second or third-hand, and in Korean they are careful to report that ‘their sources told them’ that ‘x has happened’, rather than ‘we are certain that’. Their choice of headline, which gives a false impression of certainty, was unfortunate, but headlines are often problematic in any language.

Plenty of speculation followed this initial report. Some Western journalists prematurely reported the demise of the Great Leader, but there was also just a great deal of talk about who would take over should Kim die.

Speculation was not confined to the non-Korean speaking world, however — there was plenty of speculation in the South Korean media as well.

And why not? If Kim had died and no one had not talked about what might happen next, then the alternative accusations of criminal ignorance would have been lobbed.

A morbidly obese, chain smoking, and nuclear-armed dictator’s health is of great importance to the region. The South Korean government can pretend otherwise, but it doesn’t mean that the South Korean and Western media should be censured for discussing such an important issue when they have plausible reports emerge from a generally reliable outlet like Daily NK. Some speculation went too far, but it doesn’t mean the issue should not have been broached.

There’s also the fact that Kim has, indeed, been missing in action for much of the year. Yonhap – the South Korean government-run wire agency – calculated that Kim has only appeared 17 times in public this year compared to an average of 50 times by this point in the year since 2012.

This might just be some random fluke, but his long absence around a sacred day gives credence to the view that all is not right with the Great Marshal’s health.

Of course, mistakes will happen, but we do not know if this was even a mistake. All we know is that Kim has reemerged and much of the Western media hype about his imminent demise was just speculation.

And as with all things North Korean, best to keep an open mind until significant amounts of evidence becomes available – just as Daily NK tries to.

TRUST, BUT VERIFY

Reports from Daily NK should be taken seriously, but they are not iron-clad. Multiple reports from different sources would be needed to confirm the veracity of the first report, but this first report can be a useful leading indicator, a signal of something to be aware of and to be on the eye out for. Daily NK is not infallible, but its track record indicates that it must be taken seriously as a credible source.

Daily NK actually adopts such practices internally too. Chris Green — a former Manager of International Affairs at the website — tells me that the editors asked every refugee reporter to contact their sources in-country back in 2009 to cross-check reports about the country’s disastrous currency reform that year.

As Chris put it, “they were always desperate to reconfirm information. That is why in 2009 it took longer than it could have taken to release news of the currency reform.”

The same goes for North Korean refugees. Some misspeak, say stupid things, or even mix fact with fiction. Fame can get too much for some people, especially North Korean refugees. They’re human after all.

But when you ask people about things that they experienced directly or are likely to be able to offer informed speculation about, their answers are likely to be more accurate. At the same time, when multiple sources from different parts of the country describe a similar phenomenon, then it is difficult to dismiss.

It’s not rude to ask people how they know what they say they know. It’s a common sense question that media outlets should not be shy about asking people, including refugees like Ji Seong-ho, when they confidently assert that Kim Jong Un is already dead and soon to be buried.

We can and should ask Daily NK how they know their source is reliable. We should not doubt their integrity though when they make mistakes, but I do not think we should try to convince ourselves that this was a mistake: the jury is still out on Kim’s health. As for Daily NK, they have proven track record, and shouldn’t be casually trashed.

We do ourselves a great disservice if we shoot the messengers of the valuable information that we need so badly.

Edited by Oliver Hotham