It's time to stop trying to predict North Korea's collapse

Opinion

It’s time to stop trying to predict North Korea’s collapse

Choi Sun-sil's collapse theory was rooted in Shamanism, many analyst's predictions are just as shaky

Tim Beal December 7, 2016

It’s time to stop trying to predict North Korea’s collapse

North Korea — Pyongyang by (stephan) on 2007-07-28 11:15:12

Everyone is interested in the notion that North Korea is on the verge of collapse. The idea has been around a long time, certainly since the early 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, if not before. Peter Hayes and David F. von Hippel, writing in 2011 commented:

"‘Collapsists” have been arguing since the end of the Cold War that the DPRK 'is about to collapse.' Indeed, one notable expert and colleague, Aidan Foster-Carter, reissued his latest prediction in this vein on November 15, 2009, saying that the DPRK could “fall at any moment,”—a claim no more persuasive than that made by Foster-Carter in 1992."

About the Author

Tim Beal

Tim Beal did a MA (Hons) in Modern Chinese Studies at Edinburgh University, followed by a PhD there on Chinese foreign trade. He moved to New Zealand in 1987 teaching at Victoria University of Wellington until his retirement in 2009. He has written extensively on International and Asian affairs, including two books relating to Korea: ‘North Korea: The Struggle against American Power’ (London: Pluto, 2005) and ‘Crisis in Korea: America, China, and the Risk of War’ (London: Pluto, 2011). He has been visiting both Koreas since the 1990s and maintains a geopolitical website focused on the peninsula at http://www.timbeal.net.nz/geopolitics/

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