by Stephan Haggard and Luke Herman

Prior to the missile launch we saw a spate of reporting coming out of the South Korean press hinting that the transition may not be going well. These stories may provide information—or disinformation. And the successful launch may–or may not– have changed the story line. In any case, the first anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death struck us as a reasonable time to review Kim Jong Un’s first year and identify what we do and don’t know about the succession process.

From data in the NK Leadership Trackerit seems clear that Kim Jong