As a result of focusing on the narrow goal of eliminating Pyongyang’s nuclear program,  South Korea and the United States are losing what limited economic leverage they have over North Korea. Dr. Patrick Cronin made the comments while speaking at a Korea Economic Institute & Center for New American Security event in Washington DC, moderated by Ambassador Jack Pritchard.  While Washington and Seoul have been losing influence,  North Korea has been drifting further towards China said Cronin, with the effect that Beijing is now playing an increasingly dominant role as the DPRK's primary economic provide.  The Kaesong Industrial complex now presents the only South Korean alternative to Chinese investment and assistance and may play a key role in determining the future of South Korean and U.S. relations with North Korea.

Starting his presentation, Cronin explained that  little thought had been so far paid into examining the strategic dimension of inter-Korean economic policies, due to an almost exclusive focus on North Korea’s nuclear program.  According to his argument, efforts to gain leverage over the nuclear program had inadvertently led to a growing Chinese influence while reducing the number of vectors for engagement between the U.S./ROK and North Korea.  With Kim Jong-un’s recent accession to power, Cronin argued that it was more important than ever to determine the new regime’s intentions.  But with inter-Korean engagement at an all time low, Cronin  pondered if as a symbol of cooperation,  Kaesong would now become a “relic of an attempted but failed détente, or a catalyst for future engagement policy”?