Editor’s note: What If? is an NK News series that provides readers with thoughtful, informed speculation about North Korea’s future. Articles in this series draw on verified facts and rigorous analysis to explore hypothetical scenarios in the years and decades ahead.

The People’s Liberation Army has taken Taiwan. Xi Jinping stands triumphant, having stood up to the mighty American military and cemented his place in history as the leader who realized China’s long-standing goal of national reunification.

The U.S. sent huge amounts of aid to help the Taiwanese, part of Washington’s expanded efforts to deter Beijing, but its assistance only