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Eastern Europe is witnessing another revolution: protests in Belarus, a country that has been regarded as a remarkably stable and mildly prosperous authoritarian state for the last 20 years. But these protests may mark the end of dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s hold on power — and that should be a great lesson to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

But the single most important variable here is which side Russia will take if it does decide to intervene. North Korea watchers should pay