The streets of central Pyongyang appeared almost completely empty at midday Saturday as authorities forced millions of the city’s residents into lockdown due to “rising” cases of an unspecified respiratory illness, possibly COVID-19, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery.

But authorities brought out thousands of civilians to the empty streets in order to practice for the upcoming Feb. 8 military parade, suggesting the timing of the lockdown may have more to do with ensuring the parade’s success than addressing a sudden or severe outbreak. 

Planet Labs high-resolution imagery shows the streets around central Kim Il Sung Square filled with thousands of people marching in groups, and hundreds more in a nearby parking lot practicing a formation of a DPRK flag by holding up colored cards or pom-poms. 

This comparison of high-resolution images shows streets in east Pyongyang lively on Jan. 8 (left) and empty on Jan. 28 (right) | Images: Planet Labs, edited by NK Pro

Pyongyang Station is another typically busy part of the city. Here it appeared busy on Jan. 8 (left) and deserted on Jan. 28 (right). | Images: Planet Labs, edited by NK Pro

Imagery also shows soldiers continued to practice for the parade on the first four days of the lockdown at a base in the southeast of town, while others broke ice to install what appears to be strips of fireworks mortar tubes across the frozen Taedong River, likely to be used while jets fly formations over Kim Il Sung Square during the parade and indicating the likelihood of another nighttime event. 

A DPRK government notice seen by NK Pro states the Pyongyang lockdown is set to end Monday but that it could also be extended for three days.

Since thousands of people will be in close contact during this training, including in maskless settings like meal times, authorities appear to be defying the purpose of their own orders and risking the spread of illness, whether it be COVID-19, the flu or common cold.

The commitment to carrying out parade training during lockdown raises questions about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s logic in instituting the measures, which will have severely disrupted economic activity in the capital.

His plan may rest on the hope that by strictly controlling access to Pyongyang at its perimeter while at the same time forcing its population indoors, any virus spread could theoretically fizzle out before the big event. 

But in practice, a virus could spread within a given household toward the end of the five-day lockdown, just in time for the newly-infected to go back out and infect others on Monday, nine days before the parade. There may also be a repeat of what Pyongyang authorities described as a problem with people escaping home quarantine during last May’s lockdown — another possible vector for spreading illness. 

Given these risks, authorities may be hoping to mitigate the spread of illness ahead of the parade to a certain degree while also prioritizing the event preparations. They ultimately could have also locked the city down for reasons not relating to any illness, such as a security-related situation. 

In the past, North Korea has instituted other contradictory COVID-19 measures such as emphasizing the importance of wearing masks while also forbidding attendees packed into indoor events from wearing them while Kim Jong Un is present.

Meanwhile, it remains unclear if other parts of North Korea are also under lockdown orders. Planet Labs imagery shows continuing vehicle activity in recent days in the east coast city of Hamhung as well as train and freight activity inside a disinfection complex on the border with China, but activity in other locations is difficult to determine using available medium-resolution imagery amid snowfall in much of the country.

State media has projected normalcy while not mentioning the lockdown, but also has not specified the date of any domestic news events since the first day of Pyongyang’s lockdown, saying meetings celebrating provincial propaganda squads took place that day.

Edited by Arius Derr