North Korea may be planning yet another military parade or rally involving soldiers to be held as soon as Tuesday’s ruling party foundation holiday, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery.

Planet Labs imagery shows what appears to be at least 34 block formations of people in Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square on Sunday morning in a manner resembling formation practices ahead of past military parades.

A nearly identical image to the one taken Sunday was captured in early April 2017 before a major military parade on the 15th of that month, while a state TV documentary showed leader Kim Jong Un overseeing similar goose-step training in the square.

Formations typically include 288 soldiers each, meaning nearly 10,000 soldiers could have participated in Sunday’s exercise or event.

However, while this particular arrangement of formations has only been seen in Kim Il Sung Square ahead of military parades, it remains possible that another kind of event or training has adopted the same style and that Sunday’s activity was not military related.

State media on Monday did not report on any event held in the square the previous day nor has it released any hints about planned activities for Tuesday.

Oct. 10 marks the 78th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). A major military parade was last held to mark the holiday for the 75th anniversary in 2020. 

Last year’s event was marked with celebratory events and state media aired special programs about the Kim regime. 

Available signs do not point to there being plans for a parade on Tuesday as large in scale as this year’s previous full military parades on Feb. 8 and July 27 or paramilitary parade on Sept. 9.

For example, there has been no detectable large-scale activity in recent weeks at the Mirim military parade training complex in southeast Pyongyang of the sort observed before the other three parades this year and all others in the last decade. 

This suggests that if there is a military parade or rally, it may not involve weapons or vehicles and may instead be an oath-taking ceremony for military service personnel similar to one last held in Feb. 2017, though that event was at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun and not Kim Il Sung Square.

Holding a fourth major troop parade this year would be unprecedented and would signal Kim Jong Un’s enduring priority to strengthen control over soldiers and enhancing an ongoing war-readiness propaganda campaign.

Kim and state media have pushed the notion this year that North Korea is “at the brink of nuclear war” due to U.S. and South Korean joint military exercises and surveillance activity, and must continue to focus on nuclear weapons and overall military development at all cost.

Edited by Alannah Hill