Is current North Korea risk comparable to previous periods of high tensions?
DPRK’s increasing threats and improved military capabilities set 2024 apart from past periods of escalation
Concerns are rising about the potential for confrontation on the Korean Peninsula after high-profile experts in the field published forecasts suggesting there was a high chance of conflict in the near future.
Writing for 38 North, Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker warned that Kim Jong Un “made a strategic decision to go to war” with South Korea, while Victor Cha and Andy Lim at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) predicted that 2024 is likely to be a “rocky year” with ”an uptick in North Korean belligerence in 2024”.
NK Pro analysis has also assessed that
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