A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability



Analysis A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability While escalation risks have subsided, a US failure to engage or continuation of Ukraine war could alter DPRK’s calculus Chad O'Carroll May 26, 2025 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON A North Korean soldier stands guard at Panmunjom in Sept. 2015. \| Image: NK Pro After several turbulent years, the Korean Peninsula appears to be entering a phase of relative calm — at least for the months ahead. The risk of deliberate escalation by North Korea has likely subsided for now, with Kim Jong Un seemingly in a “wait and see” mode regarding the U.S. and Russia, which may be nearing a peace deal in Ukraine. South Korea is also in the middle of an election cycle, and both caretaker officials and leading presidential candidates show little appetite to emulate Yoon Suk-yeol’s confrontational approach to inter-Korean affairs. [p Read More © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability 02Why Trump’s approach to Iran nuclear talks could reinforce North Korean distrust 03Every company that joined North Korea’s not-so-international spring trade fair 04Navigating uncertainty: How Lee Jae-myung could overhaul North Korea policy 05North Korea puts finishing touches on Wonsan Kalma resort ahead of June opening 06North Korea poised to test more weapons in months ahead as 5-year deadline looms 07A third front: Japan’s missile buildup challenges North Korea’s defense plans 08What Arab Gulf states’ rise as mediators means for future US-North Korea talks 09North Korea prioritizes shipyard construction as major naval base project stalls 10North Korea heralds naval revolution with launch of impressive new destroyer

Analysis

A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability

While escalation risks have subsided, a US failure to engage or continuation of Ukraine war could alter DPRK’s calculus

Chad O'Carroll May 26, 2025

A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability

A North Korean soldier stands guard at Panmunjom in Sept. 2015. | Image: NK Pro

After several turbulent years, the Korean Peninsula appears to be entering a phase of relative calm — at least for the months ahead.

The risk of deliberate escalation by North Korea has likely subsided for now, with Kim Jong Un seemingly in a “wait and see” mode regarding the U.S. and Russia, which may be nearing a peace deal in Ukraine.

South Korea is also in the middle of an election cycle, and both caretaker officials and leading presidential candidates show little appetite to emulate Yoon Suk-yeol’s confrontational approach to inter-Korean affairs.

01A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability
02Why Trump’s approach to Iran nuclear talks could reinforce North Korean distrust
03Every company that joined North Korea’s not-so-international spring trade fair
04Navigating uncertainty: How Lee Jae-myung could overhaul North Korea policy
05North Korea puts finishing touches on Wonsan Kalma resort ahead of June opening
06North Korea poised to test more weapons in months ahead as 5-year deadline looms
07A third front: Japan’s missile buildup challenges North Korea’s defense plans
08What Arab Gulf states’ rise as mediators means for future US-North Korea talks
09North Korea prioritizes shipyard construction as major naval base project stalls
10North Korea heralds naval revolution with launch of impressive new destroyer

A fragile calm holds with North Korea — but don’t mistake it for stability

LATEST ANALYSIS

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Chad O'Carroll