North Korea is set to hold a large-scale concert and other celebrations this Friday for the country’s 74th National Day holiday, according to an informed source in Pyongyang and NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery.

The country’s Supreme People’s Assembly may also wrap up an ongoing session in time for state media reports on its outcomes to come out on the holiday as well — including a possible foreign policy speech by leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has conducted weapons tests around the holiday numerous times in the past and could again in the coming days, but Pyongyang does not appear to be preparing to hold another military parade as it did on Sept. 9 last year.

The Rodong Sinmun reported that the Party Central Committee invited “labor innovators and meritorious persons” to Pyongyang for “celebrations” and that many arrived in the capital on Sept. 6, without elaborating on the planned events.

National Day events are expected to spotlight those who support the ruling party in a bid to reward loyalty and inspire others to more proactively push the government’s policies as ruling party elites repeatedly complain of cynicism and formalism among the masses.

OUTDOOR CONCERT

NK Pro reported in late August on efforts to set up large stages and big screen displays around the Mansudae Assembly Hall and People’s Theater next door in downtown Pyongyang ahead of the Youth Day holiday.

That holiday passed without much fanfare, but the stages, screens and lighting towers have remained installed throughout this month, an informed source in Pyongyang told NK Pro, suggesting planners began preparations for National Day events exceptionally far in advance.

Planet Labs imagery shows work began to build the outdoor event area in the Mansudae area between Aug. 16 and 20 — at least three weeks before the Sept. 9 holiday. By comparison, workers appeared to begin installing stages and screens outside Pyongyang’s war museum just two weeks before Kim Jong Un hosted a large-scale event there in late July this year.

This comparison shows ongoing work in the area surrounding the Mansudae venues in the first week of September | Images: Planet Labs PBH, edited by NK Pro

The imagery also shows extensive preparations outside the Mansudae venues for the expected Sept. 9 events: Workers first built stages and big screens in front of the Mansudae Assembly Hall east entrance and the People’s Theater west entrance in late August, before setting up yet another stage or outdoor event area at the Assembly Hall north entrance and continuing work on its east entrance throughout the first week of September. 

Additionally, the source told NK Pro that workers were preparing for a fireworks show at the Juche Tower in central Pyongyang — a staple of most major holidays in North Korea. 

Besides entertainment, invited labor “heroes” could participate in some kind of political conference or meeting on the holiday as well.

Given the size of the outdoor event area and lengthy related preparations, it is highly likely that Kim Jong Un will attend some or all Sept. 9 events. He has shown a penchant for putting on nighttime spectacles in recent years, suggesting events could kick off Friday evening with state media providing the first reports Saturday morning.

SUPREME PEOPLE’S ASSEMBLY

North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), is also holding a full session this week inside the Mansudae Assembly Hall, meaning a concert or other celebrations outside the venue could also be related to this event.

The seventh session of the 14th SPA started Wednesday, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), and will go on for at least a second day, likely continuing Thursday.

DPRK leader Kim Jong Un has occasionally attended SPA sessions to deliver important policy speeches. If he does so again this year, state media could report its contents and other results of the session such as leadership reshuffles on the morning of the Sept. 9 holiday.

Kim attended the second day of last year’s September session and gave a speech criticizing Washington, while also offering to reopen communication channels with Seoul.

He also took to the podium at the April 2019 SPA session to update the nation on stumbling peace talks with the U.S. and South Korea.

MISSILE OR NUKE TEST?

The source told NK Pro this week that there have been no typical signs of preparations for a military parade in Pyongyang in the lead-up to this week’s holiday, such as putting up decorations in Kim Il Sung Square or groups of people practicing marching in public spaces. 

NK Pro has also not detected any activity at the Mirim military parade training complex in southeast Pyongyang that would be consistent with preparations for a parade — meaning it’s unlikely at this point that one will be held on the Oct. 10 party foundation day holiday either. North Korea held a paramilitary parade on Sept. 9 last year that highlighted civil defense forces and emergency responders.

Instead of a parade this year, North Korea could still test missiles or a nuclear bomb as it has around the Sept. 9 holiday in the past. 

Unverified reports have also surfaced that Pyongyang has been preparing missiles for launch in recent weeks in multiple spots around the country, while the U.S. and South Korea have warned Pyongyang could conduct a nuclear test at any time after rebuilding testing tunnels this year. 

The DPRK tested a nuclear device on the actual holiday before, in 2016, but typically tests have occurred on the days surrounding the holiday.

For example, North Korea came back from a monthslong pause in missile testing to conduct cruise missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tests on Sept. 11, 12 and 15 last year. It also tested missiles right after the holiday in 2019 and 2017. 

Edited by Arius Derr