This is the second article in a two-part series analyzing major changes to alleged North Korea-Russia maritime arms trade in the first two months of 2024. Part one can be found here.

A Russian cargo ship recently rejoined an alleged weapons shipping operation with North Korea after a three-month hiatus, replacing another that recently traveled to a Chinese port for possible maintenance work, according to NK Pro analysis.

But soon after it carried containers from North Korea’s Rason Port to Russia’s Vostochny Port in early February, the entire maritime operation appeared to go on hold, as Russian ships linked to the trade stopped appearing at either port in available satellite imagery.

It is unclear if this is due to production problems at DPRK weapons factories or another issue. Other signs point to a resumption in the future, however, highlighting the need to continue monitoring the vessels.

The two countries started the operation last August, initially between Rason and a Russian military port at Dunay, and the four identified Russian cargo ships have made at least 32 trips to North Korea since then, NK Pro has found. 

The U.S. maintains Pyongyang is sending artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Moscow for use in its war in Ukraine, with outside experts identifying evidence of both on the battlefield. 

LADY R TAGS IN

The Russian cargo ship Lady R returned to Rason on Feb. 4 for the first time since late October, according to NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs high-resolution imagery. 

It was moored at a government-owned port in central Vladivostok over the winter before visiting Vostochny Port on Jan. 30 and again on Feb. 8 after picking up containers at Rason.

NK Pro was first to reveal the ship’s participation in the alleged arms trade last fall. The U.S.-sanctioned Lady R was previously involved in a controversial shipment of Russian military equipment and possibly weapons to South Africa. 

The other three ships identified by NK Pro and others moving containers between Rason and Far East Russian ports are the Angara, Maia-1 and Maria.

The Lady R’s return to the DPRK operation could have been to replace the Angara, which left Vostochny for Zhoushan Xinya Shipyard in China’s Zhejiang Province around the same time, according to automatic identification system (AIS) broadcasting data and satellite imagery. 

The exact purpose of this trip to China is still unclear, but it appears related to repairs or maintenance.

Imagery and AIS data show the Lady R was anchored at a berth adjacent to the Dalzavod Ship-Repair Center in Vladivostok from Oct. 28 until Jan. 10. It had made a trip carrying containers from Vostochny Port to Rason Port in the weeks prior.

The U.S. sanctioned Dalzavod in Jan. 2023, saying it is “owned or controlled by … the Government of the Russian Federation” and that it played a role “in Russia’s attempts to expand its military and economic influence in the Arctic, Far East and Pacific.”

During the Lady R’s time in Vladivostok, a hiring manager for the vessel’s owner MG-Flot, confirmed to NK Pro that the ship would undergo repair works and pick up new crew members.

The manager did not state whether the Lady R was expected to visit North Korea specifically, only explaining that the vessel would operate on the “Vladivostok-Korea-China route.”

The Russian Maritime Register shows that the Lady R also renewed major maritime certificates on Jan. 16, including a document allowing the vessel to carry dangerous goods, appearing to confirm the vessel underwent maintenance.

After leaving the port on Jan. 10, it appeared to loiter in waters east of Vladivostok until Jan. 28 and then link up at sea with two small Russian oil tankers — Orient (IMO 9061617) and Lidoga (IMO 8711746) — on Jan. 26 and 27, respectively.

Katsu Furukawa, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts on DPRK sanctions, told NK Pro that the Lady R’s movements outside Vladivostok did not look routine, describing them as “deceptive” in appearance and unlikely to be related to prior repair work.

Furukawa explained that a vessel would normally undergo trial runs right before an actual voyage rather than “wasting a large amount of gas” by engaging in “strange movements for over 10 days.”

He noted that the vessel’s contact with oil tankers may have been a routine refueling procedure, saying, “The commercial practice of ship-to-ship transfers of oil is not rare at all, being illegal only in the context of DPRK sanctions.”

CURRENT STATUS OF SHIPPING OPERATION

Though the Lady R is back, an apparent pause in the DPRK-Russia operation means it has only made one trip to North Korea since rejoining.

No large cargo ships have appeared at the two piers involved in the alleged weapons trade at Rason in available satellite imagery since Feb. 12, and North Korea does not appear to have delivered containers to the export pier during that time.

Stacks of containers delivered by the Maia-1 on Feb. 12 and Lady R earlier in the month have remained in the same position at Pier 1 over recent weeks, suggesting they are empty or there is no urgency to deliver them to destinations in North Korea.

It’s possible the operation has paused due to production holdups inside North Korea or other logistical issues. It also cannot be ruled out that weapons are being transferred to Russia by air or by rail over the two countries’ shared land border.

As for where the ships are now, NK Pro found a ship in medium-resolution imagery matching the Lady R’s size and appearance anchored in waters east of Vladivostok on Feb. 27. 

It was one of only a handful of ships out of nearly four dozen anchored in the area not broadcasting AIS data at the time, according to the tracking website MarineTraffic. The ships in the DPRK-Russia operation have kept their AIS off during all shipments, likely to avoid detection.

Among the other ships not broadcasting were ones matching the size and appearance of the other missing vessels from the DPRK-Russia shipping operation, the Maia-1 and Maria. 

All three arrived in the area this month and have remained anchored in the same positions with stacks of containers on board as of Feb. 27, suggesting they are in limbo and may return to the North Korea operation.

The timing of each of their initial arrivals in the area also lines up with their previous known positions: The Lady R arrived at the spot as early as Feb. 10 after visiting Vostochny Port on Feb. 8.

High-resolution imagery shows the Maia-1 at Rason on Feb. 12 — the final visit to North Korea by any of the four ships — before showing up in the spot east of Vladivostok between Feb. 16 and 21. 

A ship that was likely the Maria was last seen in high-resolution imagery at Vostochny Port on Feb. 13, before medium-resolution imagery showed a ship matching its dimensions arrived near Vladivostok by Feb. 16. 

Another high-resolution image taken on Feb. 22 shows its size and deck features match the Maria. However, this ship was involved in a possible attempt to obfuscate identities with another vessel called the Anisimov at the start of the operation last August, making it the hardest of the four known ships to identify using satellite images. 

Edited by Bryan Betts