North Korea has accelerated preparations in recent weeks for an upcoming military parade expected to mark the July 27 Korean War armistice anniversary, appearing to confirm it will be a large-scale event, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery.

New plane activity indicates there will once again be flyovers above Kim Il Sung Square where the parade is set to take place, while new activity at a weapons vehicle compound at the Pyongyang parade training base suggests North Korea will again show off its latest missiles and other major weapon systems at the event.

Planet Labs imagery shows that a large installation was also set up in an area of the square not used for such props during past parades, indicating there may be some format changes.

NK Pro previously discovered marching band practices at Mirim involving the formation of the word “victory” and number 70, meaning the parade will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the July 27 armistice, called the “day of victory in the Fatherland Liberation War” in North Korea. It remains possible, however, that the event could take place on a different day this month while still marking the holiday.

Major training at Mirim for the next parade appeared to start in mid-May.

FLYOVER TRAINING

Planet Labs high-resolution imagery captured at least seven helicopters and dozens of older planes amassing at the brand-new Sunchon Airbase since late June, including at least nine An-2’s and 23 Cj-6/Yak-18s. (Notably, this shows the new airbase is now operational after reconstruction wrapped up this spring.)

Similar numbers of the same aircraft were spotted gathering at Pukchang Airbase and Pyongyang International Airport in the weeks prior to the Feb. 2023 and April 2022 military parades.

North Korean parades in recent years — five held at night since 2020 — have involved a number of jet and biplane flyovers where the aircraft are fitted with neon lights and fireworks and fly in formations from east to west toward leader Kim Jong Un’s observation deck, perpendicular to the parade route through the square. 

The similar numbers and preparation process this year suggests the upcoming parade will feature similar flyovers. 

The last time North Korea held a parade to celebrate the July 27 holiday was in 2013, when planes and helicopters flew along the parade route above tanks and other military vehicles.

MISSILE VEHICLE ACTIVITY

The highly secure military vehicle garage and drive training compound at the Mirim base in southeast Pyongyang has grown more active in recent weeks, indicating the coming parade will feature dozens of missile launchers and other heavy weapons similar to those in Oct. 2020, Jan. 2021, April 2022 and Feb. 2023. 

This compound was only quiet ahead of one recent parade: The Sept. 2021 “paramilitary” parade that did not feature large weapons.

Recent Planet Labs high-resolution imagery has only captured one confirmed vehicle formation — nine vehicles situated three-by-three, each measuring roughly 20 feet (6 meters) long — but new dark tire marks appearing inside the compound since mid-June indicate formation driving practices have been ongoing. 

North Korea used the Feb. 2023 parade to communicate that it has improved its ability to manufacture transporter erector launch vehicles (TELs) for its largest intercontinental ballistic missile, rolling out more than ever before at such an event.

NEW SQUARE SETUP

Infrastructure preparations at the parade venue itself, central Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square, appeared to start far earlier than usual this year, Planet Labs imagery suggests. 

Organizers began to set up a large installation, possibly a stage for popular musicians to perform as missiles roll by, as well as a likely orchestra tent in the middle of the main square between June 12 and 16. They finished the work by July 1 — around four weeks before the projected event date. 

By comparison, orchestra tents appeared in the square around a week ahead of both the April 2022 and Feb. 2023 parades, while a large display screen was set up less than three weeks prior to last February’s event.

The apparent stage will likely be part of the main military parade and not a separate event since an outline of the same installation has been painted on the replica square at the Mirim base. This suggests troops practicing formation marching are required to march around the outlined area, like they will during the proper event.

The early square preparations raise the possibility that the parade could take place earlier than July 27, perhaps to avoid bad weather since it is currently the rainy season, or to allow time for other major events like another war veterans conference on the holiday itself. 

The main monument outside the Pyongyang war museum was renovated between February and May this year, possibly to prepare for another war veterans conference like ones held outdoors at night on the holiday in each of the last two years. Kim Jong Un also reopened the renovated museum and watched fireworks at the monument on July 27 in 2013.

Other expected military parade preparations have yet to appear in satellite imagery, such as civilians beginning slogan formation practices in Kim Il Sung Square or full-scale troop formation practices at Mirim. Precedent suggests such preparations typically appear within a month of the event.

Edited by Alannah Hill

Updated on July 6 at 10:15 a.m. KST to remove repeating paragraphs and add paragraphs in the “New Square Setup” section that were unintentionally missing.