A North Korean military parade set to take place in the coming weeks or months will likely be a large-scale event featuring mobile missile launchers and other vehicles, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery showing signs of vehicle training.

A large-scale parade presents Pyongyang with the opportunity to show off new weapons systems under development such as solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and combat and surveillance drones. North Korea last held a large parade this past April, after putting on a smaller “paramilitary” event in late 2021 that didn’t display major weapons systems. 

Planet Labs imagery shows dark tire marks starting to appear between Dec. 23 and 26 inside and around a secure garage compound at Pyongyang’s Mirim training ground, according to NK Pro analysis. 

Over an estimated 12,000 troops appear in block formations in the left image taken Dec. 20, and by Dec. 26 new tire marks appeared in and around the vehicle compound and more troop-carrying vehicles appear in a grass lot near the mock Kim Il Sung Square at the Mirim complex | Images: Planet Labs, edited by NK Pro

Oval-pattern tire marks surrounding the compound and in its interior lot, which also appeared prior to past events, suggest soldiers drive vehicles around to practice the kind of synchronized formations seen during parades. The vehicle compound was built before the Oct. 2020 military parade and features garages large enough to house dozens of missile launchers.

NK Pro previously reported that the first signs of training for a new event appeared by Dec. 5 and that around 11,000 soldiers looked to be conducting formation marching practice days later. 

The daily training, which typically takes place night and day and which leader Kim Jong Un is known to attend, has continued at a similarly large scale in imagery taken almost every day between Dec. 11 and 29. 

It is still unclear when the upcoming parade will take place, but comparing the scale of recent marching and driving practices to past events points to a Feb. 8 army holiday or former leader Kim Jong Il’s birthday on Feb. 16 as likely dates.

That’s because similar tire marks appeared at Mirim around six weeks before the Oct. 2020 parade and seven weeks before the April 2022 parade — matching the length of time between last week when they appeared again and early February. 

The Korean People’s Army (KPA) will celebrate its 75th founding anniversary on Feb. 8, and previously celebrated its 70th anniversary with a military parade in 2018.

North Korea could hold a parade sooner as well, such as around the new year or Kim Jong Un’s birthday on Jan. 8. 

Thousands of troops in block formations can be seen marching in these two photos taken just 17 minutes apart on Dec. 16 | Images: Planet Labs, edited by NK Pro

Neither occasion has coincided with a parade before, but there is precedent for soldiers practicing at Mirim for a shorter time of around just three weeks, specifically ahead of the Jan. 2021 parade — an event celebrating the end of a party congress.  

The Seoul-based Daily NK reported this week, citing an unnamed “high-level source in North Korea,” that authorities have indeed decided to hold the military parade to celebrate the end of this week’s party plenum and Children’s Union congress. 

However, the information has not been independently verified, and additional signs of preparations to hold a parade around Jan. 1 or next week have yet to emerge in satellite imagery.

For example, an orchestra tent hasn’t appeared yet in Kim Il Sung Square, where parades typically take place. Organizers appeared to begin installing such a tent around five weeks before the Jan. 2021 event and one week before the April 2022 event.

Thousands of civilians also began pom-pom formation practices in Kim Il Sung Square around three to four weeks before these two parades and another in Oct. 2020, but this form of training has not appeared in Planet Labs imagery this month either.

Edited by Bryan Betts