North Korean troops began large-scale formation training at a military parade practice area this week, according to NK Pro analysis of recent satellite imagery, in the latest sign that authorities plan to put on a military parade in downtown Pyongyang in the coming days or weeks.

Planet Labs satellite images taken on Jan. 5 and Jan. 7 show over two dozen groups of soldiers standing and marching in square formations at the Mirim parade training area in southeastern Pyongyang. 

Precedent regarding the timing of such practices suggests a parade will take place sometime between late January and mid-February. But there are also reports that North Korea will celebrate the end of the currently-ongoing Eighth Party Congress in the coming days by holding a military parade that is smaller in scale than the recent one in Oct. 2020.

Soldiers have been observed at the Mirim complex marching in lines and scattered groups consistently since December, but the fact that they have now begun organizing into large-scale formations indicates a parade will take place in Kim Il Sung Square soon.

This kind of training, where up to 37 groups of almost 300 soldiers each practice their placements and movements at Mirim for imminent military parades in Kim Il Sung Square, has in recent years only appeared just before an actual parade took place, according to available satellite imagery — with a single exception in Jan. 2020. 

NK Pro reported the start of this kind of formation training in a Jan. 22, 2020-dated Planet Labs satellite image – however, on this occasion, a parade was not actually held in the end.

It appeared that one was likely being planned for sometime Feb. 2020, but some experts concluded that it may have ultimately been canceled due to the spread of COVID-19 in China and the start of the national lockdown at the end of January.

Since at least 2015, the start of this full-scale formation training began anywhere from three weeks to six weeks before the scheduled parade date. 

But this time, it is also possible that — given extensive practices of this kind for over five weeks in the leadup to the Oct. 10 parade last year — training could be truncated in preparation for a parade as early as this weekend, if the ongoing Eighth Party Congress concludes on Friday or Saturday.

State media has not announced the duration of the Congress. The last one in 2016 lasted four days, but the event could last longer this time. 

If not planned for post-Congress celebrations, the parade for which soldiers are training at Mirim this week could be scheduled for Feb. 8 to celebrate the 73rd founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Army (KPA). However, it would be rare to hold such an event during a non-round-number anniversary year.

One could also be held on Feb. 16, a national holiday celebrating former leader Kim Jong Il’s birthday called the Day of the Shining Star. This only happened once, celebrating his 70th birthday in 2012, just months after he died.

Edited by James Fretwell