All sticks, no carrots: The failure of US deterrence strategy toward North Korea



Analysis All sticks, no carrots: The failure of US deterrence strategy toward North Korea Washington’s approach has left Pyongyang unconvinced that cooperating would help it avoid a bloody nose Timo Kivimäki May 30, 2022 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON The USS Abraham Lincoln transits the South China Sea, prior to its deployment to waters near North Korea as part of efforts to enhance deterrence \| Image: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's Flickr (April 5, 2022) North Korea developed its nuclear weapons despite U.S. threats and sanctions largely because it perceived Washington’s hostility as something that depended on the nature of the U.S. rather than on something Pyongyang itself did. According to a study that will be published by the Asian International Studies Review, the problem was in an American strategy that was based on an incorrect theory of deterrence. U.S. governments have assumed that deterrence would be most successful if the government insisted on tough measures even when North Korea cooperated: Only a bloody nose could persuade Pyongyang Read More © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01Why some countries welcome North Korean laborers despite the sanctions risks 02China knows North Korea needs it most, despite conspicuous Russia-DPRK ties 03What North Korea stands to gain — and lose — by sending workers overseas 04State media review: North Korea says citizens give thumbs-up to Kim Jong Un song 05State media review: Kim Jong Un’s leadership cult dims the Day of the Sun 06Why North Korea could draw inspiration from Iran’s suicide drone attack 07After the Panel: Weighing the best alternatives to monitor North Korea sanctions 08State media review: North Korea begins celebrations for dead leader’s birthday 09How to interpret North Korea’s abrupt about-face on diplomacy with Japan 10What 30K North Korean patents reveal about state efforts to foster innovation

Analysis

All sticks, no carrots: The failure of US deterrence strategy toward North Korea

Washington’s approach has left Pyongyang unconvinced that cooperating would help it avoid a bloody nose

Timo Kivimäki May 30, 2022

All sticks, no carrots: The failure of US deterrence strategy toward North Korea

The USS Abraham Lincoln transits the South China Sea, prior to its deployment to waters near North Korea as part of efforts to enhance deterrence | Image: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's Flickr (April 5, 2022)

North Korea developed its nuclear weapons despite U.S. threats and sanctions largely because it perceived Washington’s hostility as something that depended on the nature of the U.S. rather than on something Pyongyang itself did.

According to a study that will be published by the Asian International Studies Review, the problem was in an American strategy that was based on an incorrect theory of deterrence. U.S. governments have assumed that deterrence would be most successful if the government insisted on tough measures even when North Korea cooperated: Only a bloody nose could persuade Pyongyang

All sticks, no carrots: The failure of US deterrence strategy toward North Korea

LATEST ANALYSIS

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Timo Kivimäki