North Korea’s primary space launch center appeared mostly quiet on Tuesday, high-resolution satellite imagery shows, indicating work has not begun on a major overhaul ordered by Kim Jong Un earlier this month despite media reports of new construction.

Pyongyang has so far not provided any indications of a potential launch date after recently announcing it would put “military reconnaissance satellites” into orbit in the near future. But state media has signaled there will be massive celebrations for the April 15 holiday celebrating the 110th birthday of founding leader Kim Il Sung, and there are signs of an upcoming large-scale military parade. 

Signs of preparations for a launch on the ground at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground are expected to emerge at least one week prior to liftoff, if patterns observed over North Korea’s past three launches in 2012 and 2016 are any indication.

Observers should now look for and differentiate between signs of either new construction projects beginning throughout the Sohae complex or preparations for an upcoming launch. 

New construction on the launchpad would indicate no launches from the complex so long as construction is ongoing; otherwise, preparations could begin at any time for a launch likely to follow a week or more later. 

SOHAE STATUS

NK Pro has found only minor activity in Planet Labs images taken of the Sohae rocket launch area in recent days, with what appears to be evidence of workers clearing trees or otherwise landscaping next to the launchpad and collecting possibly related materials in the lot in front of a rocket processing structure, as well as slight movement of a crane attached to the launch tower.

However, as of March 22, there did not appear to be any signs of an imminent launch such as an increase in vehicle traffic at administrative and processing buildings. NK Pro has found no evidence to support claims by South Korea’s Donga Ilbo on Wednesday that “new facilities are being installed” at Sohae.

State media reported on March 11 that Kim visited Sohae to present construction plans that included rebuilding a control station and rocket assembly and transfer facilities, improving fueling systems, expanding the engine test stand and building a new launch viewing theater. 

Minor activity appeared at Sohae’s launchpad after Kim Jong Un’s visit this month | Image: Planet Labs PBH (March 20, 2022), edited by NK Pro

PRIOR TO PAST LAUNCHES

The time between observations of fresh activity at Sohae and launches from the spaceport has shrunk since North Korea installed a number of covered rocket processing facilities prior to 2016, making detection more difficult. But an uptick in vehicle activity around the typically quiet complex has still proved to be a solid indicator of an upcoming launch or new construction activity. 

North Korea has also notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and other organizations of its launch plans and estimated landing zones for rocket stages to avoid collisions with planes and boats, but it reduced its advance warning from one month in 2012 down to less than a week before the latest launch in 2016.

One major difference between the current situation and past launches, however, is that North Korea is now promoting a military satellite project instead of “peaceful” Earth-observation satellites like the last three launches, meaning Pyongyang may be less open about its precise schedule.

Below is a brief overview of how North Korea publicized its satellite launch plans in the past and visible indicators that emerged in satellite imagery of Sohae prior to the last three launches, all conducted since Kim Jong Un came to power.

April 13, 2012 — Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite / Unha-3 rocket

• March 17 (27 days before launch) — State media declares intention to launch around the April 15 holiday, saying Pyongyang notified international organizations of launch plans
• March 25 (20 days before launch) — South Korean official says the rocket was moved to the Sohae launch pad
• March 28 (17 days before launch) — Source tells Japanese media fueling of the rocket on the launchpad was observed
• April 8 (5 days before launch) — Foreign media invited to tour Sohae
• April 11 (2 days before launch) — Foreign media and experts invited to tour a launch control center in Pyongyang
• April 13 (day of launch) — State media announces that the “earth observation satellite failed” to enter orbit
• April 15 (2 days after launch) — North Korea celebrates 100th birthday of late founding leader Kim Il Sung

Dec. 12, 2012 — Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite Ver. 2 / Unha-3 rocket

• Nov. 26 (16 days before launch) — 38 North reports the arrival of rocket sections at Sohae assembly facilities
• Dec. 1 (11 days before launch) — State media announces intentions to launch between Dec. 10 and 22
• Dec. 4 (8 days before launch) — IMO releases details on North Korea’s launch notification, including estimated splash zones for rocket stages in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea to the west of the Korean Peninsula
• Dec. 4 (8 days before launch) — 38 North reports likely arrival of the rocket on the launch stand
• Dec. 8 (4 days before launch) — Officials announce intentions to delay the launch
• Dec. 10 (2 days before launch) — State media announces an extension of the launch window to last through Dec. 29 after finding a “technical deficiency in the first-stage control engine module”
• Dec. 12 (day of launch) — State media announces successful launch
• Dec. 12 (day of launch) — Foreign media tours control center in Pyongyang
• Dec. 17 (5 days after launch) — North Korea marks one year since the death of leader Kim Jong Il, after declaring the satellite launch was his “last instruction” 

Feb. 7, 2016 — Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite / Unha-3 rocket

• Sept. 23 (21 weeks before launch) — North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) tells CNN a launch is “imminent” but not being planned around any specific holiday (as speculation mounted it would take place around the Oct. 10 party foundation anniversary)
• Jan. 25 (13 days before launch) — 38 North reports solid signs of increased vehicle activity throughout the Sohae complex
• Feb. 2 (5 days before launch) — North Korea tells the IMO it intends to launch between Feb. 8 and 25
• Feb. 6 (1 day before launch) — 38 North detects signs of trucks carrying rocket stages to the launchpad (but reports this activity a day after the launch due to typical delays in receiving commercial satellite imagery) 
• Feb. 6 (1 day before launch) — North Korea tells the IMO it revised its launch window to between Feb. 7 and 14
• Feb. 7 (day of launch) — State media announces successful launch
• Feb. 16 (9 days after launch) — North Korea celebrates the birthday of late former leader Kim Jong Il

Edited by Arius Derr