It is impossible to predict the path that North Korea will take in the next two decades. It could become a “developmental dictatorship,” presided over by Kim Jong Un or other members of his family. It might collapse and then be absorbed into the South (still the most likely outcome). Or, a deep internal crisis might trigger a Chinese intervention and lead to the emergence of a pro-Chinese regime. However, there is good reason to believe that, whatever happens, its future ruling elite will consist overwhelmingly of people, or at least the children of people, who have played a significant