Chinese exports of diesel, gasoline and aviation kerosene to North Korea showed large increases over the first 11 months of 2014 when compared to the same period in the previous year, recent Chinese customs data indicates.
The uptick in North Korean imports of refined oil products could indicate possible refinery problems in the DPRK, which currently only has one working oil refinery, though experts warn numerous factors could be at play.
Diesel saw the sharpest increase in Chinese supply, with zero North Korean imports in 2013, but nearly 40,000 tons between January and November last year.
“It could be (due to) partial refinery problem, but just as easily represent a shift in suppliers, more product on-book that was off-book, or simply an increase in consumption because the DPRK has (from somewhere) more money to pay for imports,” David Von Hippel, a senior associate at the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, told NK News.
Both gasoline and aviation kerosene also saw large increases over their 2013 equivalents. Kerosene in particular jumped from around 500 tons to around 13,600 in 2014. The figure accounts for around a quarter of total yearly kerosene consumption in the DPRK.
“By our estimates, in 2010, more than half of the kerosene was imported … So 13.6 is again significant, but again could be in part due to refinery problems, or supplier shifts, or on-book/off-book changes, or higher consumption,” Von Hippel added.
The kerosene export figures for both 2013 and 2014 however remain depressed when compared to those from several years ago.
“[It] could mean that the Chinese don’t want the DPRK’s military planes in the air, which would be interesting, and are with-holding aviation fuel to keep them on the ground,” Von Hippel told NK News.
Gasoline imports, which dipped in November when compared to October and September export totals, also increased by around 60 percent when compared to the same period in 2013.
The increased imports represent around 15 percent of total DPRK gasoline consumption. Traditionally it was estimated that most of the DRPK’s gasoline came from in country refineries, indicating that the uptick in imports could also mean some problems in the DPRK’s domestic supply lines.
“The difference could indicate some refining problems, but not a total refinery shut down. But it could just as well be that they sourced less of their gasoline from another supplier and more from China” Von Hippel continued.
Chinese exports of fuel oils, which are often used for heating as well as by navies and commercial vessels, remained constant in 2014 when compared to the previous year.
Also as with every other month in 2014, the on-going absence of crude oil from Chinese trade figures continued into November.
Featured Image: Darrel Nash, Flickr Creative Commons
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