North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un made a total of 23 reported public appearances in October and 20 in November of 2013. These numbers were just above and below Kim’s average for the year so far. While August and September visits were mainly to locations of economic significance or special projects, the focus of the DPRK leadership appearances in October and November was on the military.
The increase in the leadership’s attention to military matters accompanies the re-starting of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, the expansion of the Tonghae missile launch facility, and the digging of new tunnels at the nuclear test site in Punggye-ri. This is all taking place during a time in which the United States has been pre-occupied with Syria and Iran and the other East Asian powers are more concerned with one another than with North Korea. Meanwhile, the United States has set preconditions for restarting for the Six-Party Talks which North Korea will likely see as unacceptable. A renewed focus on the military, along with an increase in aggressive rhetoric suggest North Korea may be approaching the point in its foreign policy cycle in which it will instigate some form of provocation.
MILITARY VISITS
There were 17 military related appearances by Kim Jong Un in October and November. Military events accounted for more than any other sector and comprised 40 percent of the total, an increase from a 27 percent average from June through September. The nature of the appearances suggests that Kim Jong Un continues to adhere to the Songun (Military -First) Policy and wants to ensure the continued loyalty of the military to his regime. But the general increase in military focus and the tone of the North Korean media may also hint at things to come.
The percentages of military-related appearances in the fall months were the highest since February and March. The numbers were among the highest along with February, March, and May. In February, North Korea conducted its third nuclear weapon test detonation. In March and April, the DPRK engaged in fierce military rhetoric and closed off South Korean access to the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The recent increased rhetoric and leadership prioritizing of the military may yet again precede a time of provocation.
At the end of October, Kim Jong Un spent several days involved with the 4th Meeting of KPA Company Commanders and Political Officers. All available company commanders and company-level political guidance officers in the Korean People’s Army attended a mass meeting in Pyongyang. Kim Jong Un gave the opening speech and conducted a photo session on the opening day of the meeting. In the later days of the meeting, Kim and the meeting’s attendees observed a military unit’s art performance, a shooting contest between marksmen representing various KPA units as well as a military firepower drill.
In early November, Kim visited the Martyrs Cemetery of Unit 790 of the KPA Navy. This marked a rare public acknowledgement by the North of a military accident resulting in the deaths of its service members. Later in the month, Kim inspected the ongoing construction of the Kim Jong Il Military Graduate Institute at Kim Il Sung Military University, demonstrating the regime’s commitment to continually improving the training and education of military officers.
Also in November, Kim Jong Un presided over the Second Meeting of Security Personnel of the KPA at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang. The report stated that “KPA security personnel have grown strongest in thinking and faith who advance along the road indicated by the party only and to be stalwart Songun revolutionary soldiers who share will, breath and destiny with the supreme commander,” and that “speakers renewed their resolution to firmly establish the supreme commander’s unitary army leadership system in the KPA security organ and creditably fulfill their mission and duty in the sacred struggle to defend the party and the leader, ideology and system of the country and the army of the revolution,” reinforcing the fact that Kim is trying to secure the continued loyalty of the military and demonstrate his commitment to Songun.
MAINSTAYS AND NEW FACES
Many key figures in Kim Jong Un’s entourage remained prominent and new faces appeared as well. Director of KPA General Political Bureau Choe Ryong Hae was the most prominent figure overall, accompanying the Supreme Leader on 65 percent of his appearances in both months.
Hwang Pyong So appeared with Kim on 15 of 20 visits during the month of November, more than any other figure. Though he still is ranked relatively low among other leadership figures, Hwang has quickly risen to prominence in terms of number of appearances. Hwang Pyong So, a Colonel General in the KPA, is currently known to be Deputy Director of the WPK’s Organization and Guidance Department (OGD). The more frequent appearances of Hwang may be tied to the increase in priority of military visits. Of his 169 recorded appearances to date, 115 have been of a military nature. As Deputy Director of the OGD, which controls the posting and ranking of party members in all organizations, Hwang likely wields a great deal of influence within the regime.
Several men who have been rising quickly under Kim Jong Un’s leadership remained prominent. Hong Yong Chil, Deputy Director of the WPK Machine-Building Industry Department, appeared 10 times and Ma Won Chun, a party department deputy director with the capital construction portfolio, made 14 appearances and was with Kim at half of all his November appearances.
Keeping with the increased priority on military affairs, Minister of the People’s Armed Forces Jang Jong Nam and KPA Chief of General Staff Ri Yong Gil made 13 and 11 appearances, respectively. Gen. Ri Yong Gil replaced Kim Kyok Sik as Chief of the General Staff of the KPA in the summer of 2013.
Of note was the absence of Kim’s family members from November appearances, including Jang Song Taek, Kim Jong Un’s uncle and vice chairman of the National Defense Commission. November 2013 was the first month since October 2008 in which Jang did not make any public appearances with the Supreme Leader. Kim Jong Un’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, was also absent from public appearance in November, though she accompanied Kim on four appearances in October. Kim Jong Un’s aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, did not appear in either month. North Korean media gave no information on the whereabouts of any of these family members in November.
Seven new leadership figures made their first appearances in October or November. Four of the new figures accompanied Kim to military events, and two others made appearances in the economic sector.
- Pak Myong Sun (박명순) and An Jong Su (안정수) appeared with Kim Jong Un on October 13 on a visit to the Kim Jong Suk Pyongyang Textile Mill. Pak is a vice department director in the WPK Central Committee. His department is unknown, but is probably related to the economic sector. An Jong Su is the DPRK’s Minister of Light Industry.
- Kim Yong Jin (김용진) appeared on October 9 at the completion ceremony of apartments for university educators in Pyongyang and Nov. 14at Kim Jong Un’s photo session with scientists and technicians. His role is unknown.
- Pyon In Son (변인선) appeared at three military events on October 27 and 30 and November 12. He is likely a high-ranking officer in the KPA.
- Jo Nam Jin (조남진), Kim Tong Hwa (김동화) and Pak Thae Su (박태수) all first appeared with Kim Jong Un at a visit to the Martyrs Cemetery of Unit 790 of the KPA Navy on November 1. Jo Nam Jin and Kim Tong Hwa both appeared again on a visit to the Masik Pass Ski Resort on November 2. None of their positions are known yet.
RUMORED TRIP TO CHINA
YTN reported on November 29of a rumored trip China by Kim Jong Un. According to the report, North Korea’s Train No. 1, for the exclusive use of the Supreme Leader, arrived at Dandong, in China’s Liaoning Province, early in the fourth week of November and returned to North Korea three days later. North Korean media and foreign intelligence agencies did not confirm or deny the reports, but there was a gap in reported appearances by Kim Jong Un at the time which allows for at least the possibility of such a trip.
At least half of all of Kim Jong Un’s appearances in the fall months were in Pyongyang. Kim also made trips to a factory in North Phyongan province in October and to Kangwon Province (including the Masik Pass Ski Resort) and to Samjiyon County in Ryangyang Province in November.
FULL ELITE BREAKDOWN FOR OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER
| Name | Position |
Oct # |
Oct % |
Nov # |
Nov % |
| Kim Jong Un | Supreme Leader |
23 |
100% |
20 |
100% |
| Choe Ryong Hae | Director of KPA General Political Bureau |
15 |
65% |
13 |
65% |
| Hwang Pyong So | Deputy Director, Organization and Guidance Department |
3 |
13% |
15 |
75% |
| Kim Won Hong | Minister of State Security |
6 |
26% |
8 |
40% |
| Ma Won Chun | Deputy Director, Party Department (with Capital Construction Portfolio) |
4 |
17% |
10 |
50% |
| Jang Jong Nam | Minister of the People’s Armed Forces |
9 |
39% |
4 |
20% |
| Ri Yong Gil | Chief of the General Staff of the KPA |
9 |
39% |
2 |
10% |
| Hong Yong Chil | Deputy Director, WPK Machine-Building Industry Department |
3 |
13% |
7 |
35% |
| Ryom Chol Song | Lieutenant General, KPA |
2 |
9% |
7 |
35% |
| Han Kwang Sang | Director, Finance & Accounting Department |
1 |
4% |
6 |
30% |
| Kim Su Gil | Lieutenant General, KPA |
2 |
9% |
5 |
25% |
| Kim Yang Gon | Secretary and Director of United Front Department |
2 |
9% |
5 |
25% |
| Pak Pong Ju | Premier |
4 |
17% |
4 |
20% |
| Choe Thae Bok | Secretary of the WPK Central Committee |
4 |
17% |
2 |
10% |
| Kim Ki Nam | Secretary of the WPK Central Committee |
6 |
26% |
0 |
0% |
| Pak Thae Song | Deputy Director of Organization and Guidance Department |
1 |
4% |
5 |
25% |
| Choe Pu Il | Minister of Public Security |
5 |
22% |
0% |
|
| Kim Pyong Ho | Director, WPK Propaganda and Agitation Department |
0 |
0% |
4 |
20% |
| Mun Kyong Dok | Chief Secretary of Pyongyang |
4 |
17% |
3 |
15% |
| Jo Kyong Chol | Chief of the Military Security Command |
4 |
17% |
1 |
5% |
| Ri Sol Ju | Wife of Kim Jong Un |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Jang Song Thaek | Vice Chairman of the NDC |
3 |
13% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Chang Sop | Director of Ministry of State Security Political Bureau |
3 |
13% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Yong Chol | Director, National Defense Commission Reconnaissance General Bureau |
2 |
9% |
1 |
5% |
| Pyon In Son | Likely KPA Officer |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| Ri Jae Il | Deputy Director of Propaganda & Agitation Department |
1 |
4% |
2 |
10% |
| Jo Nam Jin | Unknown |
0 |
0% |
2 |
10% |
| Jo Yon Jun | First Deputy Director, Organization and Guidance Department |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| Kang Sok Ju | Vice Premier |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Myong Sik | Commander, KPA Navy |
1 |
4% |
1 |
5% |
| Kim Phyong Hae | Secretary and Director of Cadre Department |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Tong Hwa | Unknown |
0 |
0% |
2 |
10% |
| Kim Yong Jin | Unknown |
1 |
4% |
1 |
5% |
| Kwak Pom Gi | Secretary and Director of Finance and Planning Department |
1 |
4% |
1 |
5% |
| Pak To Chun | Secretary of the WPK Central Committee (Military Industry) |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| Ro Tu Chol | Vice Premier and Chairman of State Planning Commission |
1 |
4% |
1 |
5% |
| So Hong Chan | First Vice Minister of the People’s Armed Forces |
1 |
4% |
1 |
5% |
| Thae Jong Su | Chief Secretary, South Hamgyong WPK Provincial Committee |
2 |
9% |
0 |
0% |
| An Jong Su | Minister of Light Industry |
0 |
0% |
1 |
5% |
| Choe Hwi | First Vice Director of Propaganda & Agitation |
0 |
0% |
1 |
5% |
| Han Kwang Bok | Director, Finance & Accounting Department |
0 |
0% |
1 |
5% |
| Ho Hwan Chol | Vice Department Director (Unknown Department) |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Ju Kyu Chang | Director of the KWP Machine-Building Industry Department |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Kyong Ok | Unknown |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Thae Hi | Chief Secretary of the University Committee of the WPK |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Kim Yong Il | Secretary and Director of International Department |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| O Kuk Ryol | Vice Chairman of the NDC |
0% |
0 |
0% |
|
| Paek Kye Ryong | Director of Light Industry Department |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Pak Chun Hong | Vice Department Director (Unknown Department) |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Pak Jong Chon | Adjutant, KPA Supreme Command |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Pak Myong Sun | Vice Department Director (Unknown Department) |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Pak Thae Su | Unknown |
0 |
0% |
1 |
5% |
| Ri Man Gon | Chief Secretary of the North Phyongan Provincial Committee of the WPK |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Ri Pyong Chol | Commander, Air and Anti-Air Force |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Rim Kwang Il | Officer, KPA |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
| Thae Hyong Chol | Chief Secretary of Kim Il Sung University Party Committee |
1 |
4% |
0 |
0% |
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